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43 J. Conflict Resol. 3 (1999)

handle is hein.journals/jcfltr43 and id is 1 raw text is: Explaining the Stability of Negotiated Settlements to Intrastate Wars CAROLINE A. HARTZELL Political Science Department Gettysburg College Although the majority of civil wars end when one warring party achieves a victory over the other, negoti- ated agreements are growing more common as a means of ending intrastate conflict. To explain why some negotiated settlements prove stable and others do not, scholars have examined the impact of factors such as superpower conflict, group identities, and third-party guarantors. This article argues that those negotiated settlements that are the most extensively institutionalized-that is, that provide institutional guarantees for the security threats antagonists face as they move toward a situation of centralized state power-are the ones most likely to prove stable. An analysis of all settlements negotiated to end intrastate conflicts during the period between 1945 and 1997 supports this proposition. With the end of the cold war, policy makers and scholars have devoted increasing attention to intrastate conflicts, the deadliest and most pervasive form of conflict in the international system today. Concerned about the human suffering these wars produce, as well as their economic effects and possible consequences for regional security, the international community has sought numerous means to end them. Although the majority of intrastate conflicts end when one warring party achieves a victory over the other (Pillar 1983; Stedman 1991), over the last 50 years approximately one-fourth of these confrontations have been terminated through negotiated agreements (Licklider 1995). Moreover, some evidence indicates that negotiated agreements have grown more common in the post-cold war period (Wallensteen and Sollenberg 1997). How- ever, the stability of these negotiated settlements is a matter of concern. Are civil wars re-emerging after short-lived peace agreements fall apart? Scholars recently have begun to ask what factors might contribute to settlement stability. For example, some authors have focused on the role of outside actors such as international and regional organizations (Maynes 1993) and third-party guarantors (Walter 1997a). Others have sought to explore the importance of economic conditions to settlement stability (de Soto and del Castillo 1994; Haggard and Kaufman 1995), the significance of ethnic and other group identities (Licklider 1995), and the influence of the absence of superpower conflict with the end of the cold war (Hampson 1990). AUTHOR'S NOTE: I thank Charles Dannehl, Fritz Gaenslen, David Lewis, Roger Rose, and Donald Rothchild for their helpful comments and advice. I also gratefully acknowledge the research assistance of Andrew Watkins, which was supported by Gettysburg College's Research and Professional Development Grants. JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION, Vol. 43 No. 1, February 1999 3-22 Q 1999 Sage Publications, Inc. 3 from the SAGE Social Science Collections. All Rights Reserved.

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