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37 J. Conflict Resol. 3 (1993)

handle is hein.journals/jcfltr37 and id is 1 raw text is: Reciprocating Influence Strategies in Interstate Crisis Bargaining RUSSELL J. LENG Middleburv College The findings of a quantitative analysis of the effectiveness of reciprocating influence strategies in militarized interstate crises (MICs) suggest that the success of reciprocating strategies in MICs is related to (1) withholding cooperative initiatives until after the reciprocating party has demonstrated its resolve, (2) the use of carrot-and-stick influence attempts and responses combining firmness with flexibility, and (3) overcoming ambiguity through overt communication of intentions. Reciprocating influence strategies are most likely to be employed by democratic states either defending the status quo or following a change in the status quo in their favor through a fait accompli. When reciprocating strategies are employed against different types of influence strategies, the outcomes are consistent with the intersection of the decision rules of the influence strategies employed by the two sides. Reciprocity serves as the primary norm for interaction in systems of self- help ranging from primitive communities to the interstate system (Masters 1969; Gouldner 1960). In the interstate system, the presumed sovereign equality of member states makes reciprocity the foundation of the practice of diplomacy. Evidence of the prevalence of reciprocating, or tit-for-tat (TFT) behavior, in the modern state system has appeared in a number of studies of interstate relations generally (Gamson and Modigliani 1971; Ward 1982; Goldstein and Freeman 1990; Patchen 1987) and of crisis bargaining in particular (Leng and Goodsell 1974; Snyder and Diesing 1977). Moreover, recent studies by the author have indicated that reciprocating influence strategies have produced a high rate of success in crisis bargaining (see Leng and Wheeler 1979; Leng forthcoming, chap. 7). AUTHOR'S NOTE: This article is adapted from a chapter in Interstate Crisis Behavior 1816-1980: Realism vs. Reciprocity (Cambridge University Press, forthcoming). The article has benefited from the helpful comments of Patrick James, Gerald Schneider, J. David Singer, Richard Stoll, and two anonymous reviewers, JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION, Vol. 37 No. 1, March 1993 3-41 C 1993 Sage Publications, Inc. 3 from the SAGE Social Science Collections. All Rights Reserved.

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