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36 J. Conflict Resol. 3 (1992)

handle is hein.journals/jcfltr36 and id is 1 raw text is: The Concentration of Capabilities and the Onset of War EDWARD D. MANSFIELD Columbia University Recent empirical research has produced no consensus on what (if any) relationship exists between the concentration of capabilities and the onset of war. The results of this article indicate that concentration is related to the frequency of war, but that rather than the monotonic relationship predicted by both balance of power and power preponderance theories, the relation- ship appears to have an inverted U-shape. We also show that concentration can be disaggregated into: (1) the number of major powers, and (2) the inequality of capabilities among the major powers. Our analysis shows that both components influence war, but that the effect on war of each component of concentration depends on the level of the other. Few topics in international relations have generated as much interest, and as little agreement, as the relationship between the distribution of power and war. Much of the scholarly debate on this topic has revolved around whether the concentration of capabilities is directly or inversely related to war. Evidence has been found to support each of these positions, as well as to support the view that no relationship exists between the concentration of capabilities and war. Previous studies have helped to advance our understand- ing of this relationship, but the lack of agreement among their findings suggests that more research is needed on this important topic. The purpose of this article is to present empirical results based on less restrictive assumptions regarding the effects of concentration on war than AUTHOR'S NOTE: An earlier version of this article was presented at the 1990 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco. I am grateful to Youseff Cohen, Frederick Frey, Avery Goldstein, Joanne Gowa, Jacek Kugler, Jack Levy, Patrick Morgan, Jack Nagel, Randall Schweller, Jack Snyder, and two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments. I am also indebted to Bruce I. Snyder for preparing Figure 1. This research was supported by the Columbia University Council for Research in the Social Sciences. JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION, Vol. 36 No. 1, March 1992 3-24 U 1992 Sage Publications, Inc. 3 from the SAGE Social Science Collections. All Rights Reserved.

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