About | HeinOnline Law Journal Library | HeinOnline Law Journal Library | HeinOnline
LOG IN
LOG IN

25 J. Conflict Resol. 3 (1981)

handle is hein.journals/jcfltr25 and id is 1 raw text is: The Conflict Process A FORMAL MODEL MARK IRVING LICHBACH Department of Political Science University of Illinois at Chicago Circle TED ROBERT GURR Department of Political Science Northwestern University This article proposes and tests a self-generative theory of conflict processes within nations. We dissect the conflict breeds conflict truism into three hypotheses: (1) the present extent of conflict simultaneously determines its intensity, while the present inten- sity of conflict determines its future extent; (2) the present extent of protest determines the present extent of rebellion and vice versa; and (3) the extent and intensity of both protest and rebellion persist over time. Our principal findings are: (1) man-days of protest is a weak positive and linear function of simultaneous man-days of rebellion and lagged man- days of protest; (2) deaths from protest is a strong curvilinear function of simultaneous man-days of protest; (3) man-days of rebellion is a weak positive and linear function of simultaneous man-days of protest and lagged man-days of rebellion, and a U-shaped function of lagged deaths from rebellion; (4) deaths from rebellion is a strong exponential function of present man-days of rebellion, and a linear and positive function of lagged deaths from protest and from rebellion. We conclude that the self-generative model pro- vides a less-than-sufficient explanation of variations in internal conflict. The purpose of this article is to specify and test with cross-national data the common-sense argument that conflict breeds conflict. The underlying assumptions are that societies and social groups have characteristic patterns of conflict behavior which exist in complex AUTHORS' NOTE: This study is part of a larger project supported by grants from the National Science Foundation to the second author. Earlier versions of this paper were read by the first author to the International Studies Association, 1979 Annual Meeting, Toronto, and to the Berlin Conference on Large-Scale Global Modelling, the Science Center Berlin, July 1980. We thank Raymond Duvall and Manus Midlarsky for their critical comments on the first paper. JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION, Vol. 25 No. 1, March 1981 3-29 @ 1981 Sage Publications, Inc. 3

What Is HeinOnline?

HeinOnline is a subscription-based resource containing thousands of academic and legal journals from inception; complete coverage of government documents such as U.S. Statutes at Large, U.S. Code, Federal Register, Code of Federal Regulations, U.S. Reports, and much more. Documents are image-based, fully searchable PDFs with the authority of print combined with the accessibility of a user-friendly and powerful database. For more information, request a quote or trial for your organization below.



Short-term subscription options include 24 hours, 48 hours, or 1 week to HeinOnline.

Purchase Access

Contact us for annual subscription options:

Contact Us

Already a HeinOnline Subscriber?

Log In

profiles profiles most