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23 J. Conflict Resol. 3 (1979)

handle is hein.journals/jcfltr23 and id is 1 raw text is: Arms Races and Escalation SOME NEW EVIDENCE MICHAEL D. WALLACE University of British Colunbia and Universiti of Michigan Although major power arms races have been the subject of a great amount of mathe- matical modelling, there has been little data-based research concerning their impact on international war. This study attempts to determine whether or not these arms races affect the probability that a serious dispute between major powers will escalate to all-out war. To do this, an arms race index is constructed in the following manner: a curve-fitting technique is employed to calculate changes in arms expenditures for each major power as a function of time. The smoothed rates of increase for each of the parties to a dispute are multiplied together, yielding an index whose values will be high only if the two powers have engaged in rapid and simultaneous military expansion prior to the dispute. It was found that disputes preceded by such an arms race escalated to war 23 out of 28 times, while disputes not preceded by an arms race re- sulted in war only 3 out of 71 times. It was concluded that at the very least, arms races are an important early warning indicator of escalation potential, and may well play a central role in the escalation process. The implications of this finding for the current debate over SALT 11 were noted. INTRODUCTION More than 30 years have passed since Lewis Fry Richardson began his pioneering treatise on the dynamics of arms races (Richard- son, 1960), and nearly two decades have gone by since David Singer (1958) and Samuel Huntington (1958) staked out their positions on AUTHOR'S NOTE: Revised version of a paper presented to the Annual Meetings of the Social Science History Association, Ann Arbor. Michigan, October 1977. Theauthor would like to thank Michael Champion, Richard Rosecrance. Bruce Russett. I)avid Singer, Richard Stoll, Harald von Rickhoff, and Dina A. Zinnes for their many helpful comments. The financial support of the Canada Council is gratefully acknowledged. JOURNAL. OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION, Vol. 23 No. I. March 1979 3-16 @ 1979 Sage Publications, Inc. 3

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