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21 J. Conflict Resol. 3 (1977)

handle is hein.journals/jcfltr21 and id is 1 raw text is: Quantitative Studies in the Balance of Power AN HISTORIAN'S REACTION PAUL W. SCHROEDER Department of History University of Illinois Quantitative studies in the history of international relations have become increasingly prominent in recent years, yet have been largely ignored by diplomatic historians. The author, a diplomatic historian, examines a recent, promising effort to test balance of power theory through a quantitative analysis of the events of European diplomatic history, 1870-1881, as recorded by historians. He concludes that though the research involved is impressive and the conclusions reached both sensible and provocative, the project appears to ignore certain inherent limitations in its historical materials and certain complexities of international relations in its efforts to achieve objective ratings of coopera- tion vs. conflict, activity vs. passivity, and alignment vs. opposition. In addition, the objective indices for power and status seem inadequate and misleading in important respects. The application of quantitative and statistical methods to the traditional materials of diplomatic history is no longer a novelty for political scientists. Two such well-known efforts in the last decade, resulting in many publications, have been the project led by North at Stanford University, applying quantitative content analysis to the diplomatic correspondence of the European powers before World War I (Zinnes et al., 1961; North et al., 1963; Holsti et al., 1968; Holsti, 1972; Choucri and North, 1975), and the work of Singer and Small on the statistical analysis of wars and alliance patterns in the nineteenth JOURNAL OF cONFLIcT RESOLUTION; vol. 21 No. I. March 1977 @ 1977 Sage Publications. Inc. 131

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