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37 How. J. Crim. Just. 1 (1998)

handle is hein.journals/hjcj37 and id is 1 raw text is: The Howard Journal Vol 37 No 1. Feb 98 ISSN 0265-5527, pp. 1-15 Attitudes, Social Problems and Reconvictions in the 'STOP' Probation Experiment PETER RAYNOR Professor, Department of Social Policy and Applied Social Studies, University of Wales, Swansea Abstract: Recent studies ofprobation's effectiveness have relied largely on reconvictions, but there is widespread interest in other possible measures of impact (for example, on attitudes or on social problems) which might provide more immediate and relevant evaluative information for practitioners. This paper reviews information generated by the CRIME-PICS instrument in the Mid Glamorgan 'STOP' experiment and compares it with reconviction data. Some relationships are identified between components of CRIME-PICS scores and subsequent reconvictions. The paper comments on the potential and feasibility of this kind of instrument in evaluation and makes suggestions about future research. Background Can community sentences reduce the tendency of offenders to commit crimes? The recent British revival of interest in this question has generated a number of evaluative studies which rely largely on reconviction rates as a measure of effectiveness or, in some cases, ineffectiveness (for example, Raynor and Vanstone 1994; Wilkinson and Morgan 1995; Roshier 1995; Oldfield 1996; Richards 1996). Whilst reconviction rates are arguably the most relevant available measure with which to address the public interest in crime reduction, they also present a number of disadvantages (reviewed by, among others, Mair 1991; Mair and Nee 1992; Lloyd et al. 1994). For exam- ple, they do not measure reoffending; they are vulnerable to local differ- ences in clear-up rates and prosecution practice; they need unpacking to study other outcomes such as the seriousness of offences and the gravity of the resulting sentences; they are sometimes difficult to ascertain; they often include 'pseudo-reconvictions' representing offences committed before the beginning of the period under study but with court dates falling within the relevant period; they require the inclusion of quite large numbers of offend- ers in a study if comparisons are to be meaningful, and their use in evalua- tion usually depends on knowing what reconviction rate would have been likely in the absence of intervention, so that evaluation designs need to be well controlled through the use of matched comparison groups or reliable baseline predictors of reconviction risk. 1 V Blackwell Publishers Ltd. 1998, 108 Cowley Road, Oxford OX4 IJF, UK and 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA

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