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19 Comp. Pol. Stud. 3 (1986-1987)

handle is hein.journals/compls19 and id is 1 raw text is: This article evaluates a formal theory of domestic political conflict using a forecasting approach. The theory, a mobilization of discontent model, argues that the extent of open political conflict within nations is a function of popular discontent, popular disposi- tions toward conflict, and the balance of organizational strengt between challengers and the regime. In order to examine the forecasting power of this argument, two competing and less elaborate models of domestic political conflict are also proposed. One, a model of the conflict process, forms linkages between the extent and intensity of conflict. The other is a truly naive model, which represents only a persistence of conflit argument. All three models are used to forecast conflict for 10 randomly selected nations in 1971-1975, and implications for the modelling of domestic political conflict are drawn. FORECASTING INTERNAL CONFLICT A Competitive Evaluation of Empirical Theories TED ROBERT GURR University of Colorado, Boulder MARK IRVING LICHBACH University of Illinois, Chicago A common theme in criticisms of empirical theories of political conflict and revolution is that they are postdictive, not predic- tive. That is, they can offer plausible explanations after the fact for the occurrence of episodes of rioting or revolution, but they are not used to make forecasts or probability statements about the occur- AUTHORS' NOTE: The research reported here has been supported by grants from the National Science Foundation and by institutional supportfrom Northwestern Univer- sity to the first author. We would like to thank Raymond Duvall, Edward N. Muller, Michael D. Wallace, and Michael D. Ward for their helpful criticisms of portions of the study. COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES, Vol. 19 No. 1, April 1986 3-38 @ 1986 Sage Publications, Inc. 3 from the SAGE Social Science Collections. All Rights Reserved.

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