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27 A.I. & L. 1 (2019)

handle is hein.journals/artinl27 and id is 1 raw text is: Artificial Intelligence and Law (2019) 27:1-14 https:I/doi.org/l 0.1007/s10506-018-9230-4 CrossMark Consistent pathway analysis: a structured analytic method Lee Tobin' . Pavel Gladyshev' Published online: 28 September 2018 © Springer Nature B.V. 2018 Abstract Mistakes during criminal investigations are costly, leading to wrongful convictions, so it is helpful to employ rigorous analytic methods to help mitigate errors and biases. This paper introduces a new method to help make sense of a set of infor- mation, allowing thought processes to be externalised in a systematic and transpar- ent manner. While this method is presented in a criminal investigation context, it can be applied to any situation where analysis of several hypotheses and evidence is required. Open source software was created and used to test the method empirically. A simulated criminal investigation was carried out by seventy-five trainee investiga- tors, the results showed better conclusions were reached when using the method. Keywords Structured analytic method - Morphological analysis - Reasoning 1 Introduction The Innocence Project is a litigation and public policy organisation dedicated to exonerating the wrongfully convicted. Their existence highlights that mistakes and misjudgements do occur during criminal investigations. Several fundamental fail- ings hamper investigative thinking, they can be grouped into three areas: cognitive biases, organisational traps, and probability errors (Rossmo 2008). This research aims to provide a balanced analysis to address these limitations of human cognition (Martin 2001; Klayman and Ha 1987; Gilead et al. 2018; Janis 1982) and provide a way of presenting and storing an analysis in an easily understandable way. While this research focuses on criminal investigations, it could be useful for analysis of any hypotheses and evidence. E Lee Tobin lee.tobin@ucdconnect.ie Pavel Gladyshev pavel.gladyshev@ucd.ie University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland Springer

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