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40 Aust. & N.Z. J. Criminology 1 (2007)

handle is hein.journals/anzjc40 and id is 1 raw text is: When Does Repeat Burglary Victimisation Occur? Alex Sagovsky and Shane D.Johnson UCL Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science, United Kingdom R esearch consistently demonstrates that past victimisation is among the best predictors of future risk. Using recorded domestic burglary crime data from Victoria,Australia, analyses were conducted to examine temporal patterns of repeat burglary victimisation. The analyses focus on both time elapsed between incidents at the same location and the time of day that events occur, the latter previously unexamined in the literature. The time- course of revictimisation is as found hitherto: revictimisation occurs swiftly and the risk of repetition decays over time. Considering the time of day, in line with routine activities theory, the majority of incidents (first or follow- up events) occurred during the day. More interestingly, the results suggest that, relative to repeat burglaries that occur months after the first offence, those that occur within 7 days are more likely to occur at the same time of the day as the antecedent event. Moreover, the time course of revictimisa- tion appears to vary for burglaries that occur at different times of the day. The results are discussed in relation to routine activities theory and with respect to their implications for crime reduction. That crime is concentrated on the same people and places and that this has poten- tial for crime control has been described as the most important criminological insight of the decade (Skogan, 1996 as cited in Brady, 1996, p. 3). Bowers et al. (2004) point out that 'it is almost a truism to note that while the information we have is about the past, it is the future we need to know about' (p. 1). Yet it is in this truism that the importance of repeat victimisation as a tool for tackling crime can be found; the power of previous victimisation as a predictor for future victimisation is unsurpassed by any other variable (Budd, 1999; Pease, 1998). Polvi et al. (1991) urge that we think 'in terms of a continuum of crime predictability. The more exactly a crime location can be specified in advance, the greater the opportunity for prevention or detection' (Polvi et al., 1991, p. 411). Predicting the timing of repeat victimisations will be the main focus of this article. Targeting repeat victimisation has a host of benefits. First and foremost, police services and crime prevention initiatives that focus on the prevention of repeat victimisation will be directed towards the people who are most vulnerable. For instance, in the 1992 British Crime Survey it was found that 4% of people suffered Address for correspondence: Shane D. Johnson, UCL Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science, University College London, Second Floor, Brook House, 2-16 Torrington Place, London, WC1E 7HN, United Kingdom. E-mail: shane.johnson@ucl.ac.uk THE AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF CRIMINOLOGY VOLUME 40 NUMBER I 2007 PP 1-26

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