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114264 1 (1981-01-01)

handle is hein.gao/gaobaduzy0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Is the Energy Crisis Real? r_21 Lisa Shames Ms Shames is a management analyst in the Energy and Minerals Division She received her A B degree in political science from Columbia University in 1977 and her master's degree in public administration from Syracuse University in 1978 She joined GAO that year on the graduate co-op program -The United States faces a serious and continuing energy problem which has provoked intense debate. Few will deny that the age of cheap, easy oil has drawn to a close, Im- ports from the Middle East are vul- nerable, and domestic production is steadily declining. At the present, there is no con- sensus on which fuel can and should replace oil. The use of nu- clear power is steeped in contro- versy. The proven reserves of gas have been falling off. Coal is abun- dant, but there are potential envi- ronmental risks and practical prob- lems in mining and transporting the necessary quantities. Among un- conventional sources, solar energy Is impeded by economic and insti- tutional barriers, and synthetic fuels will not be available in signifi- cant quantities until the end of the decade. Most likely the projected energy policy will develop into a mixed strategy to meet our future energy needs. One component of that mix, and one that offers immediate opportunities, is conservation. Conservation Conservation, or the reduction of energy use and its improved effici- ency, is receiving growing recogni- tion as an energy alternative. The second National Energy Plan, is- sued in May 1979, stated that con- servation continues to offer the greatest prospect of reducing de- pendence on unstable imports, reducing energy costs, and meeting environmental goals. The Harvard Business School estimates that a serious commitment to conserva- tion could supply up to 40 percent of the country's energy with the same standard of living.' Residential conservation involves millions of individual decisionmak- ers representing the most decen- tralized energy-consuming sector. Their attitudes and behavior regard- ing conservation are critical to any successful effort in encouraging the public to adopt a more energy- efficient lifestyle. GAO Review/Winter 1981 For an upcoming report evaluat- Ing the Department of Energy's existing and planned residential energy conservation outreach, pro- grams,2 GAO sought to determine public opinion on the overall energy situation since 1977, and review the research on what motivates people to conserve. Specific issues were * public awareness or perception of the energy situation, * factors which persuade or moti- vate the public to conserve, and * conservation measures already taken. We believed that these considera- tions contribute to the individual's decision to adopt or reject conser- vation as a permanent way of life. It should be noted at the outset that there are various Influences affecting an individual's decision to choose conservation. Some are general (prevailing local fuel prices), while others are more personal (the effect of higher fuel costs on one's heating bills). Social values also affect a person's decision. Conser- vation is an apple pie concept; that Is, few people rejec) It as socially unacceptable. Yet/despite the verbal enthusiasm for co-nserva- tion, there is a wide variation be- tween what people say and what they actually do to save energy. It is difficult to determine the relative weights of these variables in any given survey, but they must be rec- ognized nevertheless. Public Perception of the Energy Situation Effective policy implementation requires public acceptance, and the level of that acceptance Is, In part, related to the public's belief that the problem is serious, that the prob- lem will affect them personally, and that a new policy is necessary to solve the problem. For this reason, it Is important to examine how the public perceives the energy situa- tion. Pribr to the Arab oil embargo, energy was virtually absent from the public concern, but it is now a 83

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