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AFMD-92-70R 1 (1992-05-26)

handle is hein.gao/gaobackbf0001 and id is 1 raw text is: G3 O United States General Accounting Office Washington, D.C. 20548 Accounting and Financial Management Division B-248734 May 26, 1992 The Honorable Bob Graham United States Senate Dear Senator Graham: Thank you for your letter concerning the impact on the budget process of shared economic assumptions and for sending us the Center for Governmental Responsibility report on creating a consensus revenue estimating process at the federal level. We share your belief that credible economic assumptions accepted by all parties would help the quality of the budget debate. With agreed-upon assumptions, the debate might focus on priorities and/or on the impact of alternative proposals on the economy. We have a strong interest in developments and innovations at the state and local level that have potential for federal application. However, as discussed in detail below, we do not think the Center's specific proposal offers a promising approach. Extent of Forecast Differences at the Federal Level It is possible to distinguish between estimates of economic activity in the short run, which the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) calls forecasts, and the longer run, which both the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and CBO describe as projections. Forecasts generally extend for no more than 2 years, are based on a detailed examination of current economic data, and take into account cyclical factors. In this letter, we focus on the forecasts rather than the longer-term projections. We do so because the forecasts have the greatest relevance for current-year and one-year-out budget estimates and because these seem most relevant to the issues raised by the Center's study. The enclosed tables provide some information for determining the extent of the differences between CBO, OMB, and private blue chip forecasts for economic growth, GAO/AFMD-92-70R, Consensus Revenue Forecasting

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