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PSAD-78-52 1 (1978-04-07)

handle is hein.gao/gaobaawzn0001 and id is 1 raw text is: DOCUNRIT assess 05608 - [B1005948J Crop Forecasting by Satelites Progress and Problems. PSAD-76-52; 3-193134. Aprid 7, 1978. 21 pp, + 2 appendices (7 pp.). Report to the Congress; by Iler B. Steats, Comptroller General, Issue area: Science and Technology: Ranagement and oversight of Programs (2004); Food, Federal Invelvement in . S. Agricuitur.l Commercial Export Sales 1171E4). Contact: Procurement and Systems Acquisitior Div. Budget Futctihc: General Science- Spacer and tchnoloy: Space Science, Applications, and Technology (254). Organization Concerneds Departmat of &gr.iutune; NatioLal Aeronautics and Space Administrationg National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Department cf Commerce. congressioaal Relevance: anuse Committee on Science and Technology; Senate Committee on Cmaeoce, Science, and Transportation; Congress. Tho Deportment of Agricultuxe (USLI), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric administration (VOAA), anA the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are trying to improve forecasts of foreign wheat proJuction by using Landsat sateliite imagery and weather data. The Large Area Crop Invertory Experiment (LACII) is designed to determine the ,issfulness and cost-ffectivenes of usirg Lundsat data in conjunction with weather and climate data for forecasts of foreign wheat production. Fincinga/Conclusionst To date, LACIR has had nixed success in achieving its performance goals. The Phase II forecast accuracy was high for winter wheat in the Great ElaiLs and low for spring wheat. Production forecast accuracy was low for Canadian wheat, and although the LACIN estimate for the Soviet Uniou was close to actual production# there were offsetting errors in the area and yield components. Current Landsat technology cmnnot adequately distinguish spring wheat from other grains. LACIE yield estimates have been less accurate where wheat yields are extremely high or low. To improve the estimates, models are being developed which will use daily rather than aggregated monthly weather data. The lack of reliable historical yield data for memo LICIN countries also presents a problem. Nev research efforts are deemphasizing wheat forecasts and ezpanding LACIR techniques to othez crops and applications. Recomendations: The Secretary of Agriculture should provide cognizant congiessional committees with periodic assessments of the I.ACIR project, the experimentation with other crops, and the experiments with early warnaing of crop damage and crop condition assessment. (BBS)

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