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1 Michael R. Rand, Violent Crime Trends 1 (1987)

handle is hein.death/vctr0001 and id is 1 raw text is: J.S. Department of Justice 3ureau of Justice Statistics Bureau of Justice Statistics .... .... W iepo in Violent Crime Trends by Michael R. Rand BJS Statistician Data from the National Crime Survey (NCS) indicate that the rate at which Americans were victimized by violent crime increased during the 1970's but fell sharply in the 1980's. There were 36 violent victimizations per 1,000 resi- dents age 12 and older in 1973, com- pared to 38 in 1981 and 32 in 1985. In addition, violent crimes, particu- larly when committed by strangers, were no more violent in 1985 than in 1973, based on several characteristics that measure the severity of violence to the victim. Major victimization trends include the following: o Each year between 1973 and 1985, about 4 in every 10 violent crime vic- timizations by strangers involved an armed offender. * Since 1976, the percent of violent crimes by strangers in which the of- fender was armed with a gun was between 13% and 14%, except for 1983 when it was 11%. * About one-fourth of all victims of violent crimes by strangers were injured each year. o The percentage of victims of violent crimes by strangers who were injured seriously or who required some medical care for their injuries changed little during the 1973-85 period. * During the 1980's robbery victims who took no self-protective measures were somewhat less likely to be injured than similar robbery victims during the 1970's. o The victimization rate for men has decreased more than that for women since 1981. November 1987 This special report addresses recent trends in violent crime, based on 13 years of victimization data from the National Crime Survey. Violent crime in any form is unacceptable in a civilized society. This report, however, gives us some reasons for hope: Violent crimes in general are down, and the amount of violence inflicted upon victims, particularly victims of rapes, robberies, and assaults by strangers, does not appear to be increasing. Along with other reports based on this rich data series, this report expands our knowledge of the impact of crime upon victims. It should be of use to policymakers, researchers, and others interested in reducing the risks from crime that innocent citizens face. Steven R. Schlesinger Director * The victimization rate for blacks increased from 1973 to 1981 but has fallen since then. The rate for whites showed little year-to-year change during most of the 13 years, but has fallen since 1982. * People living in cities experienced greater decreases in violent crime rates since 1981 than did people living in sub- urban or rural areas, although urban areas still had the highest violent crime rates. * While the violent crime rate rose dur- ing the 1970's for persons under age 35, persons 35 and older had rates that re- mained stable or fell. Introduction This report examines trends in vio- lent crime during the 1973-85 period for the violent crimes measured by the National Crime Survey--rape, robbery, and aggravated and simple assault. (See Methodology for crime defini- tions.) Estimates of these trends are useful indicators of where the Nation stands in the battle against crime, allowing us to place current annual vic- timization rates into the perspective of past experience. This report also examines whether violent crime, particularly violent crime by strangers, has been increasing in severity in recent years. A widely held belief, often based on individual incidents of particularly cruel or vicious crimes, suggests that offenders may be more violent now than in the past. Data from the NCS indicate that vio- lent crime has not increased in severity over the 13-year period, 1973-85. Sev- eral measures of the level of violence inflicted upon victims were examined: offenders' use of weapons; the likeli- hood that victims will be injured, even those who have not resisted or provoked the offender; and the seriousness of the injuries received by victims. Findings for the Nation as a whole, however, do not necessarily negate evi- dence concerning the level of violence in crime in particular places. Violent crime may have increased in severity in specific localities, while remaining un- changed at the national level. 1See also, Philip Cook, Is Robbery Becoming More Violent? An Analysis of Robbery Murder Trends Since 1968, The Journal of Criminal Law and Crim- inology.Vol. 76, No. 2 (Summer 1985), pp. 480-89. -9,

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