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1 Thomas P. Bonczar & Allen J. Beck, Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison 1 (1997)

handle is hein.death/lilsp0001 and id is 1 raw text is: C U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison By Thom as P. Bonczar ............... ......... . and Allen J. Beck, Ph.D. BJS Statisticians .N[sae!: based___ onrc 1997,tan 1C199 60092 oncrai An estimated 5.1% of all persons in the United States will be confined~in a rr-7ai ~ V State or Federal prison duringP their risonl, yifetime, if incarceration crates recorded in 1991 remain unchanged in the, fu- ture. The lifeti1me chances of a person going: to prison. are higher for men20 (90%) than for women (1. 1%) and 2 higher for blacks (16.2%) and Hispan- ics (9.4%) than for whites (2.5%). At current levels of incarceration a black male in the United States today has greater than a 1 in 4 chance of going r to prison during his lifetime, while a Hispanic male ihas a 1 in 6 chance and a white male has a 1 in 23 chance of 0 50 6 serving time. Age at first arisslo o If recent incarcer-ation rates remain The ch.,ance of going to prison,- for The lifetime Illikellihood of incarceration, unchanged, an estimated 1 of every he first time declines with age- the focus of this study, represents the 20 persons (5.1%)Iwill serve time in Chance of going 1. to prison during percentage of all U.S..residents ex- a pis.o. n durig ir ifetime Not yet rflfe pected to be incarcerated in a prison at Men ( % are ver 8 times mo inrcerted All Wite Black some time in life. Such a measure is lil than wo men ( 1 I1 to be in- b pe rsons n nsa Birth 5.1% 4.4 % 28.5% hypothetical - based on the assump- Iae rated in prison at least, on 210 4.5 4.1 253 tion that recent rates of incarceration dur 'their lf. 2 5 .1 .0 17.3 (and death rates) will not change in the *Among men, blacs (185) are 3S 10.4 . 6 future. Unlike a standard incarceration abot mti L ikey s Hisanc 40 a.9 51 3.6 rate, which expresses the prevalence (16.0 nd 6 times ore iely tha 2 of incarceration on a single day, the wt (4%tb ad m itted to lifetime likelihood measure summa- Iso during their Hi. rizes the chances of a person being PrAmon n-o m -,e n ro-bi' thirde ill have incarcerated at some time over an 1 o H a p5 f have seie a sentence t a local entire lifetime. s e

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