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1 Barbara Tatem Kelley, et al., Epidemiology of Serious Violence 1 (1997)

handle is hein.death/episv0001 and id is 1 raw text is: :r U.S. Department of Justice
Office of Justice Programs
%d\ Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention

Epidemiology
of Serious
Violence
Barbara Tatem Kelley, David Huizinga,
Terence P. Thornberry, and Rolf Loeber

This Bulletin introduces the Office
of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency
Prevention (OJJDP) Youth Development
Series, created to present findings from
the Program of Research on the Causes
and Correlates of Delinquency for public
officials, juvenile justice practitioners, and
other interested parties. The Causes and
Correlates program-three coordinated,
longitudinal research projects supported
by OJJDP funding since 1986-represents
a milestone in criminological research
because it constitutes the largest shared-
measurement approach ever achieved in
delinquency research. Teams at the Univer-
sity at Albany, State University of New York;
the University of Colorado; and the Univer-
sity of Pittsburgh collaborated extensively
in designing the studies. At study sites in
Rochester, New York; Denver, Colorado;
and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the three
research teams have interviewed 4,000
participants at regular intervals for nearly
a decade, recording their lives in detail.
The Causes and Correlates program is
providing an empirical foundation for a
new generation of preventive, judicial, and
therapeutic interventions. The research
findings to date indicate that preventing
the onset of delinquency requires accurate
identification of the risk factors that in-
crease the likelihood of delinquent

behavior and the protective factors that
enhance positive adolescent development.
It is vital that we now take the next step
from research to action. OJJDP believes
that the important findings presented in the
Youth Development Series and the insights
derived from them will stimulate informed
public debate about juvenile crime and
shape future responses to this critical soci-
etal problem.
Juvenile Offending
Rates and Victimization
Trends
By the early 1990's, rates of criminal
violence, including youth violence,
reached unparalleled levels in American
society. Compared to adolescents in other
countries, American teenagers exhibit
alarmingly high rates of violence. For
example, an American 17-year-old is 10
times more likely to commit murder
than his or her Canadian counterpart
(Silverman and Kennedy, 1993; Blumstein,
1994).
Criminologists now question the con-
ventional wisdom that young adults
represent the most violence-prone age
group. In recent years, teenagers have so
accelerated their rate of involvement that

From the Administrator
Over the past decade, juvenile
violence has spread like an epidemic
among a small, but nonetheless
significant, segment of America's
young people. Just as a single dose
of medicine will be ineffective against
a virulent illness, so will one-time
remedial action prove inadequate to
prevent or successfully intervene in
juvenile delinquency. Long-term,
continuing solutions are needed-
solutions based on a thorough
understanding of the developmental
changes in a child's journey to
adulthood, the varied negative
influences they face along the way,
and the pathways some follow to
delinquent and criminal behavior.
To share new information about child
development and delinquency, OJJDP
is initiating a series on youth develop-
ment that will present some of the
most notable findings from our Program
of Research on the Causes and
Correlates of Delinquency. Epide-
miology of Serious Violence, the first
Bulletin in the series, answers basic
questions about the varying levels of
involvement in violent acts according
to age, sex, and ethnicity and recom-
mends a public health model of
prevention, treatment, and control.
The findings and conclusions pre-
sented here will be invaluable to
all those who are working to turn
America's youth away from violence
and toward a safer future.
Shay Bilchik
Administrator

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