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1 1 (April 5, 2019)

handle is hein.crs/govzcu0001 and id is 1 raw text is: a Congressional ____ SResearch Service The Global Economy: Is Slower Growth Ahead? April 5, 2019 Recent economic forecasts project a mild slowing in global economic growth in 2019, centered mostly in developed economies and Asia, according the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), as indicated in Table 1. The IMF forecasts global economic growth in 2019 and 2020 of 3.5% and 3.6%, respectively, down about 0.2 percentage points (pp) from previous forecasts. It also forecasts global trade growth of about 4%, and a fall in energy prices of more than 14%. Successive forecasts for global economic growth rates may be lower, based on additional data. The OECD is forecasting that global growth will slow to 3.3% in 2019 and 3.4% in 2020, also a decline of about 0.2 pp from previous projections. The OECD and IMF argue that various risks weigh on global economic growth. These risks include: escalation in trade tensions, tightening financial conditions, monetary policy mismatches between central banks (some central banks are raising interest rates and reducing monetary stimulus while others are doing the opposite), high levels of personal and public debt, uncertainty over the potential impact of a no- deal withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (Brexit) and a slowdown in China's rate of growth. The U.S. economy, which outperformed other developed economies in 2018 with an estimated 2.9% rate of growth, is projected by the OECD and the IMF to experience a slower growth in 2019 and 2020. Similarly, the Federal Reserve forecasted in March 20, 2019 the U.S. economy would grow by 2.10% in 2019, down from a previous forecast of 2.3 %. Some economic indicators suggest the U.S. economy remains comparatively strong, but a deterioration in the economies of maj or trading partners could negatively affect the U.S. economy and alter these forecasts. Broad financial and economic linkages tie the U.S. and global economies, which means the United States affects and is affected by events in the global economy. These effects are reflected in capital flows, the international exchange value of the dollar, interest rates, and U.S. trade balances. Table I.OECD and IMF Forecasts of Global Economic Growth OECD Forecast IMF Forecast 2018 2019 2020 2019 2020 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov IN11092 CRS INSIGHT Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress

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