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1 1 (April 5, 2019)

handle is hein.crs/govzcf0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Cogesoa Reeac Servic Updated April 5, 2019 Potential Implications of U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change On June 1, 2017, President Trump announced his intent to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement (PA), an international accord to address climate change over the coming century. In a December 2018 meeting of the Parties, an official U.S. statement reiterated the intent to withdraw absent the identification of terms that are more favorable to the American people. Congress may wish to consider implications of the President's intent in several dimensions: foreign policy, economic, environmental, and legal. What Is the Paris Agreement? The PA exists under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The United States ratified the UNFCCC in 1992 with the advice and consent of the Senate. In 2016, President Obama accepted the PA without requesting the Senate's advice and consent; the Department of State took the view that the PA contained no substantive, legal obligations for the United States beyond those already required by the UNFCCC. Currently, the PA has 185 Parties-governments that have ratified or accepted the agreement, including the United States-out of 195 Signatories. Of the top 20 emitting nations, only Iran, Russia, and Turkey are not Parties. Under the UNFCCC, the United States and the then- industrialized Parties listed in Annex I took on specific commitments for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, financial resources, reporting, and review. The PA modified the UNFCCC bifurcation of commitments between Annex I and developing country Parties to establish a single, common set of obligations for all Parties (with flexibilities for the least capable). For example, China agreed in the PA to the same binding commitments as the United States. Under the PA, all Parties must submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) every five years, but the content is not binding. An NDC must identify how the Party intends to abate its GHG emissions, initially to 2025 or 2030, depending on the time frame each nation chooses. Each nation voluntarily decides its NDC. As such, all PA emissions targets, including the U.S. target, are voluntary and nonbinding. The UNFCCC requires GHG and other reporting and review, differentiated by types of Parties. The PA makes an enhanced transparency framework applicable to all Parties. The PA contains cooperative compliance mechanisms but not formal sanctions. Incentives for compliance include name and shame processes: Parties that do not meet their pledges may incur diplomatic and public opinion penalties. For example, the European Union has a policy not to sign trade pacts with countries that are not parties to the PA. Variety of GHG Pledges in Selected NDCs United States: Reduce GHG emissions to 26-280% below 2005 levels in 2025. China: Inter al/a, by 2030, peak carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions; lower its CO2 emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 60-6500 below 2005 levels; and increase the non-fossil- fuel share of energy consumption to around 20%. European Union: Reduce GHG emissions by at least 4000 compared to 1990 levels. India: Inter al/a, reduce GHG emissions per unit of GDP by 33- 35% by 2030 from the 2005 level and reach 40% of its cumulative installed electric capacity from non-fossil-fuel sources by 2030. Mexico: Reduce GHG and black carbon emissions by 25% below business-as-usual projections by 2030, and up to 4000 under some conditions, implying a net emissions peak in 2026. Reduce GHG emissions per unit of GDP by around 40% from 20 13 to 2030. Countries have long negotiated over what would constitute a fair distribution of effort under the UNFCCC. The strength of the U.S. NDC compared with those of other countries can be viewed from various perspectives (see text box): To illustrate, under the NDCs, China's GHG emissions could grow to 2030, while U.S. GHG emissions would fall. Nonetheless, China's GHG emissions per person would remain well below those of the United States, and China would reduce its emissions per unit of GDP more than the United States. Withdrawal Procedure The Department of State notified the U.N. Secretary General that the United States would provide formal notification of withdrawal as soon as it is eligible to do so. Under Article 28 of the PA, this would be November 4, 2019. Withdrawal may take effect one year later-on or after November 4, 2020. In the meantime, the United States remains a Party to the PA (unless, following customary international law, the other Parties agree to allow an earlier exit). In the meantime, the U.S. delegation continues to participate in order to ensure a level playing field that benefits and protects U.S. interests, according to the Department of State. Foreign Policy and Diplomacy The President's announcement was viewed generally by observers as consistent with the Administration's America First approach to foreign policy. Although the Administration has arguably sent mixed signals about its specific foreign policy intentions, some of these signals ittps://crsreports.congress

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