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1 1 (January 8, 2025)

handle is hein.crs/goverzb0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Congre Wonal Research Serifl infon ing I Iej~ live d~ )ate o I~ 14 Updated January 8, 2025 Venezuela: Political Crisis and U.S. Policy Over the past decade, some Members of Congress have expressed concerns about the erosion of democracy in Venezuela under President NicolAs Maduro (2013-present). Maduro took office after garnering a narrow electoral victory following the death of Hugo ChAvez (in office 1999-2013), the founder of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela. Maduro has remained in power following elections in 2018 and 2024 that were both deemed fraudulent by international observers, the United States, and most U.S.-aligned democracies. After the July 28, 2024, election, Maduro claimed victory even though precinct- level vote tabulations published by the opposition indicated that opposition candidate Edmundo GonzAlez Urrutia, a retired diplomat, won with 67% of the vote. Those vote tabulations comprised nearly 84% of all votes cast. Nevertheless, Maduro is expected to begin a third term on January 10, 2025, with the support of Venezuelan security forces and allies including China, Cuba, Iran, and Russia. The first Trump Administration sought to promote democracy and human rights in Venezuela by using a maximum pressure sanctions strategy to try to compel Maduro to cede power. Sanctions proved insufficient to achieve that end and may have exacerbated an ongoing economic crisis that contributed to massive emigration, including to the United States. The Biden Administration offered limited sanctions relief to try to incentivize Maduro to convene freer and fairer elections in 2024 and to allow U.S. companies to operate in Venezuela's energy sector. The Biden Administration recognized Edmundo GonzAlez as president-elect in November 2024. The 119th Congress may assess U.S. policies toward the Maduro government, including whether and how to support the democratic opposition and the efficacy of sanctions, while also considering other U.S. interests. Such interests include U.S. energy companies' desire to operate in Venezuela, which has the world's largest proven oil reserves. They also include preventing irregular migration and compelling the Maduro government to agree to receive Venezuelan migrants removed from the United States. Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado (who was barred from running in the 2024 election) has urged President-elect Trump to focus on promoting democracy and human rights in Venezuela. Some analysts have urged the incoming Administration to negotiate with Maduro on discrete issues in the U.S. interest, such as migration or energy. Poitical Situation Venezuela, which the nongovernmental organization Freedom House ranked partly free under President Hugo ChAvez (1999-2013), has deteriorated to not free under Maduro. ChAvez, a charismatic politician, benefited from high oil prices and won most elections by a large majority. In contrast, Maduro has experienced narrow wins and some electoral defeats (including in the 2015 legislative elections in which his party lost control for the first time since 1999). The opposition, once weak and divided, has remained united since 2022 as the Unitary Platform (PUD). Maduro has relied on security forces buoyed by corrupt courts to quash dissent. He has allowed security forces to enrich themselves through illicit gold mining, drug trafficking, extortion, and other crimes. The International Criminal Court is investigating whether Venezuelan forces committed crimes against humanity. Security forces have detained and reportedly abused Maduro's opponents, including dissidents in the military, opposition politicians, and protesters. As of December 31, 2024, the government held 1,794 detainees, most of whom were arrested during protests after the July 2024 election, according to Venezuelan human rights group Foro Penal. Detentions have spiked in the leadup to January 10, 2025. After the attorney general issued an arrest warrant for GonzAlez, he fled into exile in September 2024. Machado reportedly is in hiding in Venezuela. Economic and Humanitarian Crisis By most accounts, Maduro's government has mismanaged the economy and engaged in massive corruption. Between 2014 and 2021, Venezuela's economy contracted by 80%, according to estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), due to low global oil prices and declines in the country's oil production. According to a February 2021 Government Accountability Office report, sanctions imposed by the United States from 2017 to 2019, particularly those targeting Venezuela's oil industry, contributed to the economic crisis. Hyperinflation declined from 337% in 2023 to 59.6% in 2024, according to the IMF, but income levels remain insufficient for most households to purchase basic necessities. According to one national survey by a Venezuelan university, roughly 82.8% of the population of 26.5 million lived in income poverty in 2023, particularly outside the capital of Caracas. In 2024, an estimated 7.6 million Venezuelans (28% of the population) required humanitarian assistance, according to the United Nations. Many households lack reliable access to potable water, and interruptions in electrical service and gas supplies persist. With a collapsed health system, overall health indicators, particularly infant and maternal mortality rates, remain poor. Previously eradicated diseases such as measles are a major concern. As of December 2024, UN agencies estimated there were some 7.9 million Venezuelan refugees and migrants globally. Some 6.6 million of these individuals reside in other Latin American and Caribbean countries. Venezuelan refugees and migrants reportedly face obstacles to keeping jobs and accessing health care; they may be vulnerable to human trafficking and other abuses. These factors have contributed to secondary migration to the United States.

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