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1 1 (March 7, 2024)

handle is hein.crs/goveont0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Congressional ____ ~ Research Service Slower Population Growth, Economic Growth, and U.S. Fiscal Prospects March 7, 2024 In November 2023, the U.S. Census Bureau released its first post-pandemic U.S. population projections. Newly projected population growth is slower than in earlier projections (Figure 1). Although the COVID- 19 pandemic had a noticeable effect on U.S. population trends, the longer trajectory reflects other long- term factors, such as rising longevity and falling birth rates. Those trends will affect economic growth, health care and retirement costs, labor markets, housing demand, and debt service costs, which in turn will shape the fiscal challenges facing governments at all levels. U.S. Population Growth Slowed and Is Projected to Peak in 2080 From 1977 through 2008, the U.S. population grew 1% per year on average. From 2009 through 2022, average population growth fell to 0.5% per year. According to the recent Census projections, population growth will fall from 0.49% in 2023 to 0.25% in 2038, before falling to 0.002% in 2080 and turning negative in subsequent years. Greater longevity and falling birth rates together result in the aging of the population. Yet, long-term population projections are subject to considerable uncertainty. Some demographic components, such as the aging of current cohorts, are more predictable, while others, such as future fertility rates and net immigration, are less so. Sorting out persistent effects of the COVID-19 pandemic from transitory effects also complicates such projections. Aging of the U.S. population has been long expected, as Baby Boom cohorts born after World War II have mostly reached their retirement years. The projected rise in the share of over-65 cohorts is shown in Figure 2 and Table 1. The share of young people is projected to fall, while the expected share of older Americans, especially those over 85 years of age, will rise. The population share of under-18s is projected to fall from 22% in 2022 to 16% in 2100, while the proportion of over-65s is expected to rise from 17% to 29% over the same period. Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov IN12327 CRS INSIGHT Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress

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