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1 1 (September 13, 2023)

handle is hein.crs/govemvj0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Congressional Research Service ~ nforming the legislitive debate since 1914 S Updated September 13, 2023 Climate and Security in the Middle East and North Africa The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is among the world's most water-stressed and vulnerable to climate change impacts. Policymakers' concerns about a changing MENA climate include not only physical and economic impacts but also the potential implications for political stability and security in a volatile region. A Region Under Stress Projections of various effects of climate change on the largely arid and semi-arid MENA region are available, although regional analyses are often constrained by limited data for MENA and downscaling from global models. Given MENA's geographic span-from Morocco to Iran- and topographic variation (e.g., mountains, deserts, and deltas), local effects may differ from regional trends. Average Temperatures and Hottest Days. Temperatures in the MENA region have increased for decades and are projected to continue increasing through the end of the century. Figure 1 shows one projection of hottest day temperature increases by 2040. Some research suggests intensification of warm-season heat extremes in the region (e.g., Zittis et al. in Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2021). Hotter conditions generally increase energy demand for cooling and may negatively affect health, labor, and agricultural productivity. Figure I. 2040 Projections for MENA: Hottest Day Temperatures and Longest Annual Drought Days Likely changes in 2040, compared to 1980-2005 baseline. Increase in hottest day Longest annuaL drought temperature, Celsius increased by 2.5 days or more 0 232.5 Source: CRS adapted from U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), Global Trends 2040, March 2021. Notes: The projections used the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. NIC's data source was Schwingshackl, Sillman, and the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research. NIC's graphic source was Pardee Center, University of Denver. Water and Storms. Both droughts and floods occur in MENA, with variability over time and place. Several studies project increasingly lengthy droughts in some parts of MENA, including annual dry spells projected to last longer by 2040 (Figure 1). Many (but not all) studies project less precipitation along MENA's Mediterranean coast through this century; less agreement exists regarding whether precipitation may increase or decrease in other parts of the MENA region (e.g., Arabian Peninsula, Sahara portion of various North Africa countries). Regarding precipitation extremes, some studies (e.g., Ozturk et al. in Atmosphere, 2021) project an increase in precipitation amounts on very wet days for the end of this century for much of the region, which may contribute to flooding. In September 2023, Storm Daniel (a medicane-a Mediterranean Sea storm with hurricane-type characteristics) led to torrential rains over eastern Libya, with flooding and dam failures affecting the city of Derna. Many thousands were displaced, and the loss of life may exceed 5,000. Some research indicates that with a warmer climate, medicanes with the strongest winds may become stronger while medicanes overall may decrease in frequency (e.g., Flaounas et al. in Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2022). Future trends in the development of medicanes may depend on competing climate-related variables (e.g., higher sea surface temperatures enhancing medicane strength versus higher air temperatures leading to less frequent medicanes). Rising sea levels are encroaching on MENA coastlines and communities, thereby contributing to more frequent flooding and more extensive coastal storm flooding. According to some researchers, by 2050, portions of Iraq's second-largest city of Basra and other southern Iraqi areas could experience chronic coastal flooding. Alexandria, Egypt, one of the most populous coastal cities in the Middle East, also could be regularly flooded by rising sea levels. Agriculture and Food. Much of MENA's agriculture and food production is rain-fed or consists of livestock. Production and many rural agricultural livelihoods are sensitive to changes in heat, drought, and precipitation patterns. Additionally, some production in the region relies on irrigation, which can be sensitive to surface water availability and can contribute to overuse of aquifers. Limited arable land, water scarcity, and other resource and environmental constraints limit regional agricultural production. The region has coped with population growth and urbanization by importing food. Reliance on food imports is anticipated to persist, with demographic and diet trends and changing agricultural growing conditions (e.g., effects of heat and drought on agricultural productivity) as contributing factors. How Climate May Interact with Security U.S. national security assessments have described climate change as a threat multiplier that may exacerbate existing tensions in regions facing other challenges, such as

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