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     2         Congjressional                                                      ____
     *   £b Research Service






The U.S. Housing Underbuilding Gap



July  10, 2023

Economists have noted widespread tight housing supply conditions in the United States currently, leading
to high home prices and rents. The policy discussion surrounding low supply is often focused on the
supply of units affordable to lower-income households given that higher-income households may have
more choice even when prices and rents are rising. However, inventory, price, and construction data
suggest that supply is relatively low in the aggregate-even at lower price and rent points. For a
discussion of factors that could be contributing to low supply, see CRS Report R47617, U.S. Housing
Supply: Recent Trends and Policy Considerations, by Lida R. Weinstock. This Insight presents data on
residential construction over time to help quantify trends in overall supply and discusses estimates of the
underbuilding gap by various organizations.


Residential Construction

There are several metrics to measure the level of housing construction, including new permits, starts,
completions, units currently under construction, and private spending on construction. This Insight
focuses on housing starts (the number of housing units that started being built in a given period) as a
proxy for total residential construction.
Figure 1 below shows housing starts of all types divided by total population since 1980. Starts have
always been somewhat cyclical in nature, but this cyclicality was particularly pronounced during the
housing and financial crisis of 2007-2009. Combined housing starts fell quickly and by a large magnitude
during this period, then rose at a much slower pace in the years after, never fully recovering to pre-2007
levels. After a period of recovery and an acceleration in the pace of starts during the COVID-19
pandemic, starts fell in 2022. Additionally, rental and homeowner vacancy rates have trended downward
since the 2007-2009 crisis, indicating that lowered construction rates during this period were likely not a
result of ample stock or waning demand.
An additional facet to declining construction is declining construction of specific types of housing. For
example, the share of construction of starter homes-in this case, defined as single family homes of
1,400 square feet or less-has been trending downward over the past several decades. This alone does not
necessarily contribute to low supply of all units, but it may have negative consequences for specific
demographic groups or specific local markets.


                                                                  Congressional Research Service
                                                                    https://crsreports.congress.gov
                                                                                        IN12195

CRS INSIGHT
Prepared for Members and
Committees of Congress

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