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Political Transition in Tokyo
Updated September 10, 2021
On September 3, 2021, Japan's Prime MinisterYoshihide Suga abruptly withdrew from seeking
reelection as leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Suga's announcement thrust
Japanese politics into uncertainty, with the range of outcomes holding potentially significant implications
for the U.S.-Japan alliance. Suga's support ratings had fallen to 30% and below, mainly from widespread
perceptions that his government was mishandling the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.
For months, infection and hospitalization numbers have risen, prompting the government to redeclare a
state of emergency in many regions, due in part to Japan 's slow progress on vaccinating its population.
Hosting the Olympics and Paralympics in Tokyo during the summer failed to give Suga a hoped-for boost
in the polls.
Upcoming Election Season
Japan is facing a crowded political calendar to end the year, with LDP leadership elections in September
2021 and general elections for the Lower House of Japan's parliament (known as the Diet) due in October
or November 2021. Whomever the LDP chooses as party president will lead the party in the general
election campaign. Given the LDP and its coalition partner's control of the Diet, the next LDP leader is
overwhelmingly favored to become the next Prime Minister. Since the spring of 2021, Suga's
unpopularity appears to have convinced him and party leaders that he posed an electoral vulnerability, a
perception that was reinforced by multiple LDP defeats in by-elections and local elections in the spring
and summer of 2021, including in Suga's home city ofYokohama.
Likely Candidates
Several candidates have already declared their intention to compete in the leadership elections: Taro Kono
(Minister of Administrative Reform and vaccine czar, as well as a former Defense Minister and Foreign
Affairs Minister), Fumio Kishida (former holder of the powerful party policy chief position as well as
former Foreign Affairs Minister), Sanae Takaichi (former Minister of Internal Affairs and
Communications, as well as several other Cabinet posts), and Seiko Noda (executive acting secretary
general of the LDP and former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications). Kono appears to lead in
the polls, with Kishida, Takaichi, and Noda behind him. Kono, 58, is considered a political maverick,
Congressional Research Service
https://crsreports.congress.gov
IN11691
CRS INSIGHT
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