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1 1 (February 21, 2022)

handle is hein.crs/govefia0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Congressional SResearch Service IE India's 2022 State Elections: A Preview February 21, 2022 Overview Some Members of Congress express concern about the state of Indian democracy and human rights. Five of India's 28 states are conducting elections to seat state legislators to five-year terms; results are to be announced on March 10. The outcomes may provide indications of the current strength of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's national-ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ahead of national elections scheduled for early 2024. State assemblies elect state government heads, known as chief ministers (CMs). BJP CMs are incumbent in the bellwether state of Uttar Pradesh (UP, population 200 million), as well as in Uttarakhand (11 million), Manipur (3 million), and Goa (1.5 million); of the five, only Punjab (30 million) has an incumbent non-BJP CM, a member of the Indian National Congress Party (or Congress). These elections are widely seen as a referendum on the BJP's performance after it won national reelection in 2019. Analysts contend that a BJP defeat in any of the four states it controls-especially UP-would suggest public dissatisfaction is growing in response to India's sluggish economic growth, high unemployment, proposed changes to farm and citizenship laws, and the government's handling of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic, and would thus be a blow to the BJP. Meanwhile, failure by the Congress Party to prevail in any of the five elections-especially in Punjab-could threaten the once- dominant, but now declining party's future as a national political force. (For more on India's domestic politics, see IF10298.) Uttar Pradesh UP is India's most populous state and prize electoral jewel. The BJP won convincingly there in both 2017 state-level and 2019 national elections with an overt Hindu first agenda that marginalized Muslims, who account for one-fifth of UP's population. CM Yogi Adityanath, a Hindu monk and hardline Hindu nationalist hand-picked for the job by Modi in 2017, leads a state party that appears to be campaigning mainly on religious and caste issues. Polls show this may be a winning approach, despite reports that voters say they are more focused on unemployment and inflation. The main contenders to unseat the BJP are the regionally powerful, caste-based Samajwadi Party led by Akhilesh Yadav (CM from 2012 to 2017) and the Bahujan Samaj Party. In 2017, the BJP won nearly 40% of votes and 77% of assembly seats without fielding a Muslim candidate. Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov IN11865 CRS INSIGHT Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress

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