About | HeinOnline Law Journal Library | HeinOnline Law Journal Library | HeinOnline
LOG IN
LOG IN

1 1 (July 15, 2021)

handle is hein.crs/goveeau0001 and id is 1 raw text is: $ se h $ervk* k4~~ niri~ ihe I ~j I~ ~v ~ ~14 July 15, 2021 Climate and Security in the Middle East and North Africa The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is among the world's mostwater-stressed and vulnerable to climate change. Policymakers' concerns abouta changing MENA climate include not only physical and economic impacts but also the potential implications for political stability and security in a volatile region. A Dry Region Under Stress Projections ofvarious effects ofclimate change on the largely arid and semi-arid MENA region are available, although regional analyses are often constrainedby limited data forMENA and downscaling fromglobalmodels. Given MENA's geographic span-fromMoroccoto Iran- and topographic variation (e.g., mountains, deserts, and deltas), local effects may differ fromregionaltrends. Heat. Temperatures in the MENA region have increased for decades and are projected to continue increasing in coming decades through the end of the century. Figure 1 shows one projectionofhottestday temperature increases by 2040. Some research suggests intensifying warm-season heat extremes in the region (e.g., Zittis et al. in Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2021). Hotter conditions generally increase energy demand for cooling and may negatively affect health, labor, and agricultural productivity. Figure I. 2040 Projections for MENA: Hottest Day Temperatures and Longest Annual Drought Days Likely changes in 2040, compared to 1980-2005 baseline. Increase in hottest day Longest annual drought temperature, Celcius increased by 2.5 days or more 0 7- 2.5 ) Source: CRS adapted from U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), Global Trends 2040, March 2021. The projections used the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. N IC identified the data source as Schwingshackl, Sillman, and the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research andthe graphic source as Pardee Center University of Denver. Water. Both droughts and floods occur in MENA, with variability over time and place. Several studies project increasingly lengthy droughts in some parts of MENA. These include annual dry spells projected to last longer by 2040 (Figure 1). Many (but notall) studies project less precipitation along MENA's Mediterranean coast through this century; less agreement exists over whether precipitation may increase or decrease in other parts of the MENA region (e.g., Arabian Peninsula, Sahara portion of various North Africa countries). Regarding precipitation extremes, some studies (e.g., Ozturket al. in Atmosphere, 2021) project an increase in precipitation amounts on very wet days for the end of this century for much of the region, which may contribute to flooding. Rising sea levels are encroaching on coastal ecosystems and communities, thereby contributing to more frequent flooding and more extensive coastal stormflooding. Accordingto some researchers, by 2050, portions of Iraq's second-largestcity ofBasra andother southern Iraqi areas could experience chronic coastal flooding. Alexandria, Egypt, one of the most populous coastal cities in the Middle East, also could be regularly flooded by rising sea levels. Agriculture andFood. Much of MENA's agriculture and food productionis rain-fed or consists oflivestock. Production and many rural agricultural livelihoods are sensitive to changes in heat, drought, and precipitation patterns. Additionally, some production in the regionrelies on irrigation, which can be sensitiveto surfacewater availability and can contribute to overuse of aquifers. Limited arable land, water scarcity, andotherresources and environmental constraints limit regional agricultural production. The regionhas coped with population growth and urbanization by importing food. Reliance on food imports is anticipated to persist, with demographic and diet trends and changing agricultural growing conditions (e.g., potential productivity los ses) as contributing factors. How Climate May Interact with Security U.S. national security assessments have described climate change as a threat multiplier that may exacerbate existing tensions in regions facing other challenges, like intra-state conflict, rapid population growth, urbanization, or poor governance. The chain of linkages fromclimate and weather events to politicalstability is complex, with intervening critical factors such as socials chisms and governance. In the MENA region, where several countries (Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon) are divided along ethnic/sectarian lines, armed sub-state actors and terrorist groups could broaden their appealto sectors of the population disaffected by physical hardships wrought by climate change. Various examples illustrate how climate conditions and weather events, such as droughts and heatwaves, could affect MENA's future in terms ofpolitical unrest, violent conflicts, andthe well-beingofits people. Forinstance, rising or spiking food prices or water shortages previously have triggered urban unrest in the region. Reliance on food imports links MENA's internal stability to agricultural conditions in exporting nations. Poor conditions in

What Is HeinOnline?

HeinOnline is a subscription-based resource containing thousands of academic and legal journals from inception; complete coverage of government documents such as U.S. Statutes at Large, U.S. Code, Federal Register, Code of Federal Regulations, U.S. Reports, and much more. Documents are image-based, fully searchable PDFs with the authority of print combined with the accessibility of a user-friendly and powerful database. For more information, request a quote or trial for your organization below.



Short-term subscription options include 24 hours, 48 hours, or 1 week to HeinOnline.

Purchase Access

Already a HeinOnline Subscriber?

Log In

profiles profiles most