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1 1 (May 13, 2021)

handle is hein.crs/govedhw0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Congressional *Research Service Central America's Northern Triangle: Challenges for U.S. Policymakers in 2021 Updated May 13, 2021 El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, located in the Northern Triangle region of Central America (see Figure 1), have long struggled with high levels of poverty and inequality, widespread insecurity, and fragile democratic institutions. Already-difficult living conditions have worsened over the past year due to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and two hurricanes. The International Monetary Fund estimates the Salvadoran economy contracted by nearly 8.6% in 2020 and the Honduran and Guatemalan economies contracted by 8.0% and 1.5%, respectively. Nearly 1 million Salvadorans, 3.1 million Hondurans, and 3.7 million Guatemalans are contending with crisis or emergency levels of food insecurity. Although the pandemic and government lockdowns initially disrupted criminal activities, reports suggest domestic violence increased and gangs and illicit trafficking groups quickly adapted to the changed circumstances. Amid these challenges, the Northern Triangle governments have sought to undermine anti-corruption efforts, weaken judicial independence, and consolidate power, in the view of many analysts. The deteriorating situation in the Northern Triangle could have far-reaching implications for the United States. U.S. authorities encountered (apprehended or expelled under a public health authority) approximately 112,000 Hondurans, 96,000 Guatemalans, and 30,000 Salvadorans at the Southwest border in the first four months of 2021. Migration levels typically peak in the spring, but mixed flows of asylum- seekers and economic migrants could swell again later in the year as governments further ease COVID- 19-related border restrictions. Conditions in the region also could affect illicit trafficking patterns, as some analysts warn that criminal organizations may exploit the situation to further tighten their grip on the economies, people, and politics of the Northern Triangle. Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov IN11603 CRS INSIGHT Prepared for Membersand Committeesof Congress

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