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1 1 (April 26, 2021)

handle is hein.crs/govedch0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Congressional Research Service 0 April 26, 2021 Chad: Implications of President D6by's Death and Transition Chad's President Idriss D6by, a former army chief who seized power in a rebellion in 1990, was pronounced dead on April 20, 2021, reportedly from battlefield injuries, one week after an election that would have given him a sixth term in office. He reportedly was wounded in a visit to the frontline where his troops were defending against a Chadian rebel advance launched from neighboring Libya. An army spokesman gave notice of D6by's death on state television, announcing the dissolution of the government and the National Assembly and the formation of a military council led by Deby's son, General Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno, aka Mahamat Kaka. The military council has proposed, in contravention of the constitution, to lead Chad for an 18- month transitional period before elections are held. Deby, one of the world's longest ruling heads of state, was an influential leader on the continent (his former foreign minister serves as the African Union's top diplomat), in part due to the prowess of Chad's military. The United States, France, and neighboring Nigeria, among others, viewed him as a key counterterrorism partner. Chad's regional military interventions under Deby raised his international status, and by some accounts helped to deflect Western donor concerns over repression, human rights abuses, and corruption. Figure I. Map of Chad Source: CRS graphic. Regional Security Dyna ics Chad, a landlocked country twice the size of Texas with a turbulent history since its independence from France in 1960, sits in the center of an unstable region. Deby assertively leveraged Chad's oil resources and foreign patronage to become an influential regional figure, and his death is expected to have broad regional implications. Libya. The disputed border region between Chad and Libya is an important regional transit corridor. Ethnic groups spanning the border are influential in both countries, and Chadian armed groups have participated on all sides of various conflicts in Libya since 2011. In April 2021, forces of the Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT, more below) launched an incursion from southeastern Libya into northern Chad. FACT had claimed neutrality in Libya's conflict, but reportedly recently provided support to the Libyan National Army/Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LNA) movement led by Khalifa Haftar. FACT previously had aligned itself with Haftar's western Libya-based opponents. Libya's transition remains contested. The United States supports U.N.-led efforts to extend a tenuous national ceasefire, ensure foreign forces' departure, and prepare for elections in December 2021. U.S. Embassy Libya asserted that FACT's offensive again highlights the urgent need for a unified, stable Libya with control over its borders. Sudan. Chad's politics are linked to those of Sudan, which is in the midst of a fragile transition following the 2019 ouster of long-ruling president Omar al Bashir by his military. In Sudan, citizens used social media to coordinate the protests that prompted Bashir's overthrow. In Chad, meanwhile, D6by's government had restricted internet access for extensive periods, particularly during periods of heightened political dispute. Like their Chadian counterparts, rebels from Sudan's Darfur region have used Libya as a rear base and fought in the conflict there. Some have begun to return to Sudan as part of an October 2020 Sudanese peace agreement that Deby helped to facilitate. D6by, who once launched his own rebellion from Sudan, engaged in a proxy war with Bashir in the mid-2000s before mending ties with him in 2010. The proxy war culminated in Chadian rebel assaults on N'Djamena in 2006 and 2008 and a Sudanese rebel attack on Khartoum in 2008. The leaders' agreement to cease support for each other's armed oppositions quieted the region and led to cooperation on border security. Chad's relations with Sudan's transitional government have been cordial. There has been speculation, though, that former Janjaweed militia leader Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, aka Hemeti, might seek to influence a political transition in Chad. Hemeti, who now holds a top government post in Sudan, hails from a Chadian Arab clan and maintains strong ties with Chadian Arab politicians. Deby's Zaghawa ethnic group (a small minority in Chad) spans the border, and Zaghawa played a prominent role in the Darfur rebellion. Violence in Darfur is rising, displacing over 250,000 people since the beginning of 2021, as peacekeepers have exited. Some observers warn that intercommunal conflicts could pull Darfur back to war. Instability in Chad could worsen the situation, with ramifications for Sudan's transition. Lake Chad Basin and the Sahel. Chadian forces have played an integral role in U.S.- and AU-backed efforts to combat Boko Haram and the Islamic State's West Africa Province (IS-WA) in the Lake Chad Basin region (comprising adjacent areas of Chad, Cameroon, Niger, and Nigeria). D6by recently accused his neighbors of bearing an )s://crsreports.conqress.

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