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                                                                                       Updated  March 12,2021
Belarus: An Overview


Since 2020, Belarusian politics and societyhave undergone
a trans formation many observers view as both tragic and
inspiring. Before Belarus's August2020 presidential
election, opposition candidate Sviatlana Ts ikhanouskaya
mounted  an unexpectedly strong campaign against
Aleks andr Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus for more
than 26 years. Protests against allegedly widespread
electoral fraud and a brutal crackdown onprotestors led to
the rise of a mass opposition movement, on a scale unseen
since Belarus became independent in 1991. Human rights
activists and monitors report more than 32,000 Belarus ians,
including journalists, havebeen temporarily detained or
imprisoned and consider about 200 to be politicalprisones.
At least 10 demonstrators and others have been killed or
died under suspicious circumstances.

The United States, the European Union (EU), and others
have called for an end to the crackdown and for the
government  to conduct a dialogue with the opposition and
hold democratic presidential elections.

Political   Background
In past years, observers have debated whether Lukashenko
could be encouraged to preside over a softer and more
development-oriented authoritarian regime, but political
openings in Belarus have been modest and short-lived.
Prior to the 2020 election, Lukashenko appeared to be
interested in tightening Belarus's authoritarian system. In
2019 elections, pro-governmentcandidates won all 110
seats in parliament. In June 2020, Lukashenko appointed an
official from the security sector as prime minister.

FromMay   2020, Belarusian authorities tried,but failed, to
suppress an unexpectedly energetic electoral opposition.
Ts ikhanouskay a was apolitical novice who entered the race
after her spouse, Siarhei Ts ikhanousky, a popular
antigovernment video blogger, was denied candidate
registration whenhe and dozens ofother governmentcritics
were in temporary detention. Afterhis initialrelease,
Siarhei Tsikhanousky was arrested again while collecting
signatures forhis wife's candidacy; he remains in prison.

Tsikhanouskayabecame  the united opposition candidate
after two prominent figures were denied registration. Viktar
Babaryka, the longtime head of a bankownedby Russian
energy companyGazprom,  was  arrestedon charges of
bribery and money laundering that observers considered
politically motivated. Valery Tsapkala, a former
ambas s ador to the United States and head of Belarus's Hi-
Tech Park, an information and communications technology
(ICT) hub, left the country under threat.

Ts ikhanouskay apledged to be a transitional figure who
would reintroduce democracy to Belarus. Babaryka's
camp aign manager, Mariy aKalesnikava, and Tsapkala's


wife, Veranika Tsapkala, joined heron the campaign. The
three women attracted tens of thousands to demonstrations.

Given Lukashenko's authoritarian rule, observers did not
expect Tsikhanouskaya to win the election. However, the
official pronouncement that Lukashenko won with an
evidently exaggerated 80% of the vote (to 10% for
Tsikhanouskaya) quickly led to protests. The brutal
crackdown  that followed led to larger protests that many
observers characterized as leaderless and sometimes
attracted hundreds of thousands. Protests have since
dwindled in frequency and size, but activists have adopted
new methods of protest andengagement.

Figure I. Belarus at a Glance


Sources: World Bank; U.N. Comtrade Database.
Exile, imprisonment, and persecution have imposed
challenges for the opposition. Ts ikhanouskay a and her
children left Belarus after she was detained andthreatened
with imprisonment. In exile, Tsikhanouskayaformed a
Coordination Council to help lead the opposition. Five of
the council's seven seniormembers were detained after it
was established. In September2020, Kalesnikava was
abducted anddispatchedto the Belarus-Poland border. She
was imprisoned after she refused to leave the country.
Kales nikava and another council member, Maxim Znak,
remain in prison. Others have left Belarus.

The oppositionhas organized various actions to increase
pressure on the government of Belarus and secure
international attention. The opposition has been supported
by a networkof former law enforcement officials who
reportedly quit their jobs in protest (or were dismis sed) and
who  seekto expose allegedgovernment crimes, including
against opposition figures and protesters. The opposition
also has been supportedby members ofBelarus's once-
burgeoning ICT industry, many of whomhave left the
country, along with severalICT companies.


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