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1 1 (March 12, 2021)

handle is hein.crs/govecpu0001 and id is 1 raw text is: hCongressional SResearch Service Central America's Northern Triangle: Challenges for U.S. Policymakers in 2021 Updated March 12, 2021 Instability in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras (the Northern Triangle of Central America; see Figure 1) is among the most pressing challenges for U.S. policymakers in the Western Hemisphere. The United States historically has played a prominent role in the political and economic development of the region, which has long struggled with widespread insecurity, fragile democratic institutions, and high levels of poverty and inequality. Already difficult living conditions have deteriorated over the past year due to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and two hurricanes. The World Bank estimates the Honduran economy contracted by 9.7% in 2020 and the Salvadoran and Guatemalan economies contracted by 7.2% and 3.5%, respectively. Approximately 2.9 million Hondurans, 1 million Salvadorans, and 3.7 million Guatemalans are contending with crisis or emergency levels of food insecurity. Although the pandemic and government lockdowns initially disrupted criminal activities, reports suggest domestic violence increased and gangs and illicit trafficking groups quickly adapted to the changed circumstances. Some government officials have sought to take advantage of the disorder, allegedly engaging in corruption, repressing dissent, and undermining the rule of law to advance their personal and political interests. These interrelated socioeconomic, security, and political challenges could have far-reaching implications for the United States. Although the Biden Administration has urged potential irregular migrants not to make the dangerous journey, U.S. authorities have encountered growing numbers of Guatemalans, Hondurans, and Salvadorans at the Southwest border. Many analysts expect these mixed migration flows of asylum-seekers and economic migrants to swell over the course of 2021, especially once governments ease COVID-19-related border restrictions. Conditions in the region also could affect illicit trafficking patterns, as some analysts warn that criminal organizations may exploit the situation to further tighten their grip on the economies, people, and politics of the Northern Triangle. Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov IN11603 CRS INSIGHT Prepared for Membersand Committeesof Congress

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