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1 1 (February 16, 2021)

handle is hein.crs/govecgf0001 and id is 1 raw text is: SCongressional * Research Service Central America's Northern Triangle: Challenges for U.S. Policymakers in 2021 February 16, 2021 Instability in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras (the Northern Triangle of CentralAmerica; see Figure 1) is among the most pressing challenges for U.S. policymakers in the Western Hemisphere. The United States historically has played a prominent role in the political and economic development of the region, which has long struggled with widespread insecurity, fragile democratic institutions, and high levels of poverty and inequality. Already difficult living conditions have deteriorated over the past year due to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and two hurricanes. The World Bank estimates the Honduran economy contracted by 9.7% in 2020, and the Salvadoran and Guatemalan economies contracted by 7.2% and 3.5%, respectively. More than 3.5 million people in Central America are now facing crisis levels of food insecurity. Although the pandemic and government lockdowns initially disrupted criminal activities, reports suggest domestic violence increased, and gangs and illicit trafficking groups quickly adapted to the changed circumstances. Some government officials have sought to take advantage of the disorder, allegedly engaging in corruption, repressing dissent, and undermining the rule of law to advance their personal and political interests. These interrelated socioeconomic, security, and political challenges could have far-reaching implications for the United States. Mixed migration flows of asylum-seekers and economic migrants from the region may swell over the course of 2021, especially once governments ease COVID-19-related border restrictions. Some Hondurans have already formed large-scale caravans to make the journey north. Conditions in the region also could affect illicit trafficking patterns, as some analysts warn that criminal organizations may take advantage of the devastation in the region to further tighten their grip on the economies, people, and politics of the Northern Triangle. Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov IN11603 CRS INSIGHT Prepared for Membersand Committeesof Congress

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