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Updated January 5, 2021
North Korea's Nuclear Weapons and Missile Programs
Overview
North Korea continues to advance its nuclear weapons and
missile programs despite UN Security Councilsanctions
and high-level diplomatic efforts. North Koreais observing
a self-imposed moratoriumon nuclear and long-range
missile testing. Recent ballis tic missile tests and an October
2020 military parade suggest that North Korea is continuing
to build a nuclear warfighting capability designed to evade
regional ballis tic missile defenses. Such an approach likely
reinforces a deterrence and coercive diplomacy strategy-
lending more credibility as it demonstrates capability-but
it also raises questions aboutcrisis stability andescalation
control. Congress may choose to examine U.S. policy in
light of these advances.
In the April2018 PanmunjomDeclaration by North and
South Korea and the June 2018 U.S.-North Korea Joint
Statement, Kim Jong Un pledged to improve relations and
work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean
Peninsula. However, the Director of National Intelligence
(DNI) said in his 2019 threat assessment to Congress that
North Korea is unlikely to give up all of its nuclear
weapons andproductioncapabilities, even as it seeks to
negotiate partialdenuclearization steps to obtain key US
and international concessions. Trump and Kim held a
second summit in 2019 but were unable to reach agreement,
and nuclear dis armament has not progressed since then.
North Korean statements describe North Korea's nuclear
arsenal as a deterrentto U.S. nuclear war threats. Kim
JongUn said at the 2016Workers' Party Congress that
nuclear weapons ofthe DPRK can be used only by afinal
order ofthe Supreme Commander ofthe Korean People's
Army [Kim Jong Un] to repel invasion or attackfroma
hostile nuclear weapons state and make retaliatory strikes.
The U.S. intelligence community has said North Korean
leaders view nuclear weapons as criticalto regime
survival and intendedfordeterrence, international
prestige, and coercive diplomacy.
Nuclear Testing
North Korea has tested a nuclear explosive device sixtimes
since 2006. Each test producedunderground blasts
progressively higher in magnitude and es timated yield.
North Korea conducted its most recent test on September 3,
2017. A North Korean press release stated it had tested a
hydrogenbomb (or two-stage thermonuclear warhead) that
it was perfecting for delivery on an intercontinentalballistic
missile. In April 2018, North Korea announced that it had
achieved its goals, would no longer conduct nuclear tes ts,
and would close down its Punggye-ri nuclear test site. It
dynamited theentrances to two test tunnels in May 2018
prior to the first Trump-Kim summit in front of a group of
journalists. In an October2018 meeting with Secretary of
State Mike Pompeo, Kim Jong Un invited inspectors to
visit the [test site] to confirmthat it has been irreversibly
dismantled, but this has not yet occurred.
Nuclear Material Production
and Warheads
North Korea reportedly continues to produce fis sile
material (plutoniumand highly enriched uranium) for
weapons. North Korea restarted its plutoniumproduction
facilities after it withdrew from a nuclear agreement in
2009, and is operating at least one centrifuge enrichment
plant at its Yongbyon nuclear complex. During the
September2018 North-South Korea Pyongyang Summit,
the North stated it would permanently disable the
Yongbyonfacilities if the United States took
correspondingmeasures. U.S. officials have said that
other clandestine enrichment facilities likely exist. News
reports in August 2017 said that one component of the
intelligence community (IC), the U.S. Defense Intelligence
Agency (DIA), estimated a stockpile of up to 60 nuclear
warheads. Some experts have estimated that North Korea
could produce enough nuclear material for an additional
seven warheads per year.
According to the U.S. IC, North Korea aims to develop a
nuclear warhead that is miniaturized, or sufficiently
lightweight and smallenough to mount on a long-range
ballistic missile. As of July 2017, a DIA assessment and
some outside observers believed North Koreahad achieved
the level of miniaturization required to fit a nuclear device
on weapons ranging across the spectrumof its missiles,
from short-rangeballistic missiles (SRBM)to
intercontinentalballistic missiles (ICBM).
Delivery Vehicles
U.N. Security Council (UNSC) resolutions prohibit North
Korea's development of the means of delivering
conventional and nuclear payloads, in addition to the
nuclear weapons themselves. UNSC resolutions ban all
ballistic missile tests by North Korea. A ballistic missile is
a projectile powered by arocket engineuntilit reaches the
apogee of its trajectory, at which point it falls backto earth
using earth's gravity. They are categorized as short-range,
medium-range, or intercontinentalbased on the distance
from the launch site they can strike a target. Ballistic
missiles can deliver nuclear and large conventional
payloads athighspeed and over great distances.
North Korea is developing nuclear weapons and delivery
systems that possess certain critical features: mobility,
reliability, potency, precision, and survivability. Mobile
weapons have increased s urviv ability compared with fixed
launch sites and static stockpiles. Reliability, potency,
precision, and in-flight maneuverability worktogether to
maximize the impact of North Korea's limited quantity of
weapons, launchers, and warheads. A key element to North](ViewImageLocal?handle=hein.crs/govebbb0001&div=1&collection=&method=preview&ext=.png&size=3)