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1 1 (June 24, 2020)

handle is hein.crs/govdpyy0001 and id is 1 raw text is: FF. mppm qq\ p\w -- , gn'a', go I aS 11LIANJILiN, Updated June 24, 2020 Al Qaeda and Islamic State Affiliates in Afghanistan Afghanistan's geography, complex ethnic composition, and recent history of conflict and instability have created space for numerous regional armed groups. This product outlines major terrorist groups affiliated and allied with Al Qaeda (AQ) and the Islamic State (IS, also known as ISIS, ISIL, or by the Arabic acronym Da 'esh) and the convoluted, often shifting relations between them and various other state and non-state actors. These dynamics may inform assessments of U.S. policy in Afghanistan in light of the February 2020 U.S.-Taliban agreement, which commits the Taliban to undertake counterterrorism efforts and commits the United States to a full military withdrawal by April 2021. The Taliban is not a U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), but it relates to the groups below in varying ways that may have ramifications for that withdrawal, which U.S. officials describe as conditions- based. AM Qaeda Core The top echelon or core AQ leadership remains a primary U.S. target in Afghanistan; CENTCOM Commander General Kenneth McKenzie, Jr., described eastern Afghanistan as the home of Al Qaeda in June 2020. Also known as Al Qaeda Central, the core is made up of AQ leader Ayman al Zawahiri and his deputies, an advisory council of about ten individuals, and members of various AQ committees such as military operations and finance. In September 2019, the White House announced that Hamza bin Laden, son of AQ founder Osama bin Laden and a rising leader in the group, had been killed in a U.S. counterterrorism operation in the Afghanistan/Pakistan region. U.S. officials have maintained that U.S. raids and airstrikes on AQ targets, including a large training camp discovered in Kandahar province 2015, have reduced the AQ presence in Afghanistan. It is unclear what threat AQ poses in light of this counterterrorism pressure. A November 2019 report from the Department of Defense (DOD) cited a Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) estimate that the 300 AQ members in Afghanistan were almost certainly focused on survival. In May 2020, the United Nations (U.N.) relayed a Member State's assessment that AQ is quietly gaining strength in Afghanistan while continuing to operate with the Taliban under their protection. In May 2020, the U.N. also reported that senior Taliban leaders regularly consulted with their AQ counterparts (including Hamza bin Laden in June 2019) during negotiations with the United States. Al Qaeda has welcomed the U.S.-Taliban agreement, celebrating it as a victory for the Taliban's cause and thus for global militancy. The U.S.-Taliban agreement commits the Taliban to preventing any group, including Al Qaeda, from using Afghan soil to threaten the security of the United States or its allies. It is unclear what verification mechanisms, if any, are in place to ensure Taliban compliance and to what extent the U.S. withdrawal (ongoing since March 2020) might be paused or reversed based on Taliban action with regard to Al Qaeda. Al ,Qae ,da in the i,,ndian Sbotnn In September 2014, Zawahiri announced the creation of a formal, separate Al Qaeda affiliate in South Asia, Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). Because of the relative geographical proximity of AQIS and the AQ core, differentiating between the two is difficult, but some key distinctions exist. Overall, AQIS represents an attempt by AQ to establish a more durable presence in the region by enhancing links with local actors. Former AQIS leader Asim Umar, who was being sheltered by Taliban forces when he was killed in a joint U.S.-Afghan operation in Afghanistan in September 2019, was an Indian national with deep roots in Pakistan; AQ leaders are predominantly Arab. The relocation of some AQ leaders to Syria further incentivized Al Qaeda to create a locally sustainable affiliate in Afghanistan and the surrounding region. While AQIS reportedly has attempted to solidify its presence in Afghanistan by embedding fighters in the Taliban, its operations have mostly been elsewhere: AQIS has claimed a number of attacks in Pakistan and Bangladesh, mostly against security targets and secular activists, respectively. According to the November 2019 DOD report, DIA assessed that AQIS would need several years without sustained counterterrorism pressure ... to develop the capability to attack outside South Asia. AQIS has several hundred members (per the State Department), and was designated as an FTO in June 2016. -.-,'~-' *.~

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