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1 [1] (August 24, 2020)

handle is hein.crs/govdblf0001 and id is 1 raw text is: 01;0 gognpq go g , q 's a X 11LULANJILiN, Updated August 24, 2020 Belarus: An Overview Beginning in August 2020, popular unrest has posed a serious political challenge to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (or Lukashenka). In advance of an early August presidential election, opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya (Tsikhanouskaya) mounted an unexpectedly strong campaign to replace Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus for 26 years. Given Lukashenko's authoritarian rule, observers did not expect Tikhanovskaya to win the election. However, the official pronouncement that Lukashenko won with a seemingly exaggerated 80% of the vote (to 10% for Tikhanovskaya) led to protests. A brutal and seemingly indiscriminate crackdown has led to larger protests and strikes of government workers on a scale unseen since Belarus became independent in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Authorities have released most of the several thousand individuals they detained, but dozens reportedly remain in prison or are missing. Tikhanovskaya and her children have left Belarus for their protection. Tikhanovskaya is part of a new Coordination Council, which is calling for new elections and has been targeted by authorities for prosecution. The United States, other countries, and international organizations have condemned violence against protestors and detainees and criticized the elections as neither free nor fair. The European Council, composed of the leaders of European Union (EU) member states, further stated that the EU does not recognize the results of the election and would impose sanctions against those responsible for violence, repression and the falsification of election results. Belarus's closest security and economic partner is Russia. Tensions between Belarus and Russia have increased in recent years, with the two countries at odds over energy, debt, trade, and transit. Since Russia's 2014 invasion of Ukraine, Lukashenko has been wary of Russian intentions. Many observers believe Moscow's preference is for a weakened Lukashenko to stay in power dependent on Russia. Some have noted Russia's acceptance of political change in Armenia, another Russian ally, as evidence that Moscow could be satisfied by a political change in Belarus that would not reduce Russian influence. Politi,6cs and the- CoronavirAuus Pandemic In recent years, observers have debated whether Lukashenko could be encouraged to preside over a softer and more development-oriented authoritarian regime. The government released several political prisoners in 2015. In 2016, for the first time in years, opposition candidates were allowed to win 2 of the 110 seats in the lower house of Belarus's legislature. In 2018, Lukashenko appointed a relatively capable technocrat as prime minister. Figure I. Belarus at a Glance Comparativ e Are se Iight-en Liguiges 70%~ Rtm-Ian, authoriar~ian(20 tem. I Noebr21Ialaetr GDP/GDP per capcta a June 2020 S,5kashenk remoedtesrmemnitrn Tot Erportechnocat oficafls, steadrappot aspime andI parts, ay prod tst2CS minsers~ anofiial. frote secrit kasndc dfehne sector. Sources: World Bank; U.N. Comtrade Database. Prior to the August 9, 2020, election, however, Lukashenko appeared to be interested in tightening Belarus's authoritarian system. In November 2019 parliamentary elections, pro-government candidates won all I10 seats. In June 2020, Lukashenko removed the prime minister and other technocratic officials, instead appointing as prime minister an official from the security and defense sector. Since May 2020, Belarusian authorities have tried but failed to suppress an unexpectedly energetic electoral opposition. Leading opposition candidate and political novice Tikhanovskaya (aged 37) entered the race after her spouse, a popular antigovernment video blogger, was denied his own candidate registration while he and dozens of other government critics were in temporary detention. Soon after Tikhanovsky's release, he again was arrested while collecting signatures in support of his wife's candidacy; he remains in prison. Tikhanovskaya became a united opposition candidate after two other prominent individuals were denied registration. Victor Babariko, the longtime head of Belgazprombank, a bank owned by Russian energy company Gazprom, was arrested in June 2020 for alleged financial crimes. The next month, Valery Tsepkalo, a former ambassador to the United States and longtime head of Belarus's Hi-Tech Park, an information and communications technology (ICT) hub, left the country under threat. Babariko's campaign manager and Tsepkalo's wife joined Tikhanovskaya on the campaign trail; the three women attracted tens of thousands to demonstrations. Tikhanovskaya pledged to be a transitional figure who would reintroduce democracy to Belarus. Many observers attributed the strength of Tikhanovskaya's campaign to popular disillusionment with Lukashenko's response to the coronavirus pandemic. Lukashenko, who

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