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1 1 (July 17, 2020)

handle is hein.crs/govdaze0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Researh Service COVID-19: How Quickly Will Unemployment Recover? July 17, 2020 Because of effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the United States has seen both high unemployment levels and record rates of change in those levels. This has made it difficult to forecast unemployment from one month to the next. This Insight discusses the current state of unemployment, how unemployment might change over the next few years, and what those changes would mean for the economy. Current Outlook COVID- 19 and the subsequent public health crisis led to precipitous increases in unemployment and underemployment in April, May, and June 2020. Figure 1 contrasts the official U3 unemployment rate- unemployed workers as a percentage of the labor force-with the U6 rate, which also includes those working part-time for economic reasons and discouraged workers. At the height of the Great Recession of 2007-2009, the U3 rate reached 10% compared with a high of 14.7% in April or 11.10% in June. (For further explanation of these rates, see CRS In Focus IF 10443, Introduction to U.S. Economy: Unemployment, by Lida R. Weinstock.) Analysis of changes in employed workers may offer additional, and in some situations more stable, insights on the state of the labor force. Figure 2 shows that the number of employed workers as a percentage of the non-institutionalized population decreased substantially during the pandemic. The employment-population ratio hit a low of 59.4% during the Great Recession compared with 51.3% in April. Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov IN11460 CFRS NS GHT Prepaimed for Mernbeis and Committees of Congress .....

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