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1 [1] (May 19, 2020)

handle is hein.crs/govdama0001 and id is 1 raw text is: &~ ~ riE SE .$rCh &~ ~ ~ gognpq go g , q a X Updated May 19, 2020 Belarus: An Overview In recent years, observers have debated the prospects for change in the foreign and domestic policies of Belarus, an authoritarian state in Eastern Europe with close economic and security ties to Russia (see Figure 1). Although the U.S.-Belarus relationship has been difficult, the two countries have taken steps to normalize relations, including an agreement to appoint ambassadors for the first time since 2008. Few observers anticipate major governance or foreign policy changes in Belarus in the near term. Some, however, believe incremental shifts may be possible. Congressional policy toward Belarus previously has focused on the promotion of democracy and human rights, including via the imposition of sanctions. The renewal of U.S. diplomatic relations with Belarus and Belarus's growing rift with Russia may be of interest to some Members of Congress. Belarus became independent in 1991, after the collapse of the Soviet Union. President Alexander Lukashenko was first elected president in 1994 and has led Belarus for 26 years. The next presidential election is scheduled for August 2020. Observers consider Belarus to have an authoritarian system of governance that restricts most political and civil liberties. The U.S.-based nongovernmental organization (NGO) Freedom House gives Belarus a freedom rating of not free, the same score it gives Russia. In recent years, observers have discussed whether the Belarusian government has taken steps to become a softer authoritarian regime or whether such steps are more symbolic than substantive. The government released several political prisoners in 2015. In 2016, for the first time in years, opposition candidates were allowed to win 2 of the 110 seats in the lower house of Belarus's legislature. In November 2019, however, pro-government candidates again won all 110 seats. Human rights observers have detailed how the Belarusian government suppresses independent media and restricts freedom of assembly. Belarus has been a relative outlier in Europe in its response to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Lukashenko has spoken derisively about public health measures other countries have taken. The government has not instituted official closures or social distancing policies, although reports indicate that many Belarusians, local government bodies, and some institutions have taken preventative measures on their own. As of May 19, 2020, Belarus officially reported more than 31,500 coronavirus cases and 175 deaths. Many observers believe the number of deaths is understated; Lukashenko has said that no one will die of coronavirus in our country and that seemingly related deaths are due to preexisting conditions. After independence, the state continued to play a dominant role in Belarus's economy. Some argue that because the government avoided difficult market reforms, Belarus experienced a relatively milder post-Soviet decline in the 1990s than its neighbors. Others believe Belarus merely postponed necessary reforms; for example, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), reforms of the large state-owned enterprise sector are critical to tackle inefficiencies and increase potential growth. The IMF states that the Belarusian government's preference for a gradual, incremental approach to reform may lead to protracted vulnerabilities. Figure I. Belarus at a Glance Population: 9.5 miii~on (2029 ect.) ti ?on tKarsas Ethnic Comnposftlon ,4% eL,0 r.Usltan, 8% Russian. 3% P'olsh (20Y9 census) Languages:-70% Russian, 23% Bd.ansian U2009 cen sus! GDP/GDP per capita: $59.6 bIion/$,283 (201_8 es8.) Top Exports: Od dfld mm@Cd tucks fe-rtzers, motor ,sehks arnd saris, dir'y #:roduts (2ON9} Leadierhip- President Aexarde r Lu PRi ne :Mirdster Sei gei Rumas, Foreign Mi~ster# \dh.mir Makes Sources: International Monetary Fund; U.N. Comtrade Database. Graphic produced by CRS. The export of refined oil products, based on subsidized crude oil imported from Russia, plays a major role in Belarus's economy. In 2015-2016, Belarus experienced a recession amid declining global oil prices and Russia's economic downturn. Over those two years, Belarus's gross domestic product (GDP) declined by an average of 3.2% annually. Economic growth averaged 2.8% a year in 2017- 2018 and slowed to an estimated 1.2% in 2019, due to the rising cost of Russian crude oil imports (see Relations with Russia, below). The IMF estimates that Belarus's GDP could decline by 6% in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. Russia is Belarus's largest trading partner. In 2019, half of Belarus's merchandise trade was with Russia. The European Union (EU) as a whole was Belarus's second- largest trading partner, making up more than 20% of its merchandise trade. Belarus's next-largest trading partners were Ukraine (8%) and China (6%). Less than 1% of Belarus's total merchandise trade is with the United States. * Mfr~s~' * :2' jp. .O 'T

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