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               Researh Sevice






South Sudan's Civil War: Nearly 400,000

Estimated Dead



Updated September 28, 2018

South Sudan, which became the world's newest country when it split from Sudan in 2011, has been mired
in civil war since December 2013. The war has had a devastating impact, displacing some 4.5 million
people and fueling near-famine conditions. With over 7.1 i million people severely food insecure in 2018, it
is among the world's worst humanitarian crises, and the U.N. humanitarian appeal for S1.4 billion in
assistance is among the largest. South Sudan is one of the most dangerous environments for aid workers,
with over 100 killed since the war began. The death toll from the conflict, however, has been based on
guesswork, until the release of a new U.S.-funded study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical
Medicine (LSHTM), commissioned by the U.S. Institute of Peace.
Far from the often-used estimate, cited since 2014, ofat least 50,000 deaths, LSHTM experts assess
that roughly 383,000 South Sudanese, including combatants, had died as a result of the war as of April
2018, based on a statistical analysis of mortality and other data. These are excess deaths, above and
beyond what would have likely occurred absent war. The study found that approximately half of these
deaths were due to violence; the rest are attributed to indirect factors (e.g., disruptions in health services,
increased food insecurity). The report compares the rate of violent deaths to other conflicts and suggests
that South Sudan's has been even more violent than has been reported. By comparison, studies
suggested that less than 10% of the estimated deaths linked to conflict in the Democratic Republic of
Congo between 1998-2004 were directly caused by violence.
The LSHTM experts indicate that their estimate of the death toll is conservative, and that factors such as
lack of access to some insecure areas and a possible under-reporting of child deaths may have resulted in
under-estimating. To put South Sudan's crisis-attributable mortality in context with other conflicts,
studies have estimated almost 300,000 deaths in Darfur (2003-2008, during which time an estimated 20%
of the deaths were violent), a region of Sudan with a slightly smaller population than South Sudan's. The
death toll in Syria's civil war is debated, but some have placed it at over 500,000 since 2011 (Syria's
population is almost twice that of South Sudan).
Unlike in Syria, where U.N. agencies tried to track mortality in the early years of the war, neither the
U.N., humanitarian groups, nor the government have systematically sought to count the dead in South
Sudan. After the initial outbreak of violence, when civilians were killed in systematic attacks based on


                                                                 Congressional Research Service
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