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1 1 (February 14, 2018)

handle is hein.crs/govcgzt0001 and id is 1 raw text is: FF. ' r iE E r ,,.! i Updated February 14, 2018 Burma's Peace Process: Narrowing Opportunities in 2018 Burma (Myanmar) has been riven by a low-grade civil war between government forces and various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) since it became an independent sovereign state in 1948. In 2016, State Councilor Aung San Suu Kyi and her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), assumed power after a landslide victory in parliamentary elections, and soon after identified ending the long-standing conflict as one of their top priorities. However, escalated fighting between the Burmese military, or Tatmadaw, and several of the EAOs, and an alleged ethnic cleansing in Rakhine State, have raised serious doubts about the prospects for peace. Although two EAOs, the Lahu Democratic Union and the New Mon State Army, signed a ceasefire agreement with the NLD-led government on February 13, 2018, several EAOs have lost trust in the peace process advocated by Aung San Suu Kyi and are preparing for intensified conflict in 2018. The 3rd session of the 2ls' Century Panglong Conference-an effort to forge a peace agreement between the government, the military, and EAOs which was tentatively scheduled for late January 2018, has been postponed at least until late February. Burma has suffered a low-grade civil war since it became an independent sovereign state on January 4, 1948. In 1962, the Tatmadaw used the ongoing conflict-and the perceived risk that some states could secede from the federated government-to overthrow a democratically elected civilian government. Over the next 50 years, the Tatmadaw was unable either to negotiate peace or to win victory on the battlefield. In 2011, Burma's military junta, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), transferred power to a mixed civilian/military government headed by President Them Sein, a retired general and ex-SPDC Prime Minister. In October 2015, President Them Sein signed a ceasefire agreement with 8 of the more than 20 EAOs, but his subsequent efforts to get more EAOs to sign were unsuccessful. After the signing of the ceasefire agreement, fighting between the Tatmadaw and several of the non- signatory EAOs intensified, resulting in both civilian and military casualties. Burma is an ethnically diverse nation in which the ethnic Bamar are a majority of the population, but several other ethnic minorities-including the Chin, Kachin, Karen, Karenni, Mon, Rakhine, and Shan-are the majority population in some regions. Burma's 1948 constitution established the Union of Burma as a federated nation in which the predominately ethnic minority states retained a fair amount of autonomy and the right to secede from the Union after 10 years. Figure I. Map of Burma (Myanmar) * . .:. :,'.: ?: . ,7.:. .::,. . ...-::. Source: CRS. The 1948 constitution was based in part on the provisions of the 1947 Panglong Agreement negotiated between General Aung San (Aung San Suu Kyi's father) and leaders of the Chin, Kachin, and Shan ethnic minority communities. The Panglong Agreement accepted in principle the full autonomy in internal administration for the Frontier Areas in exchange for the ethnic minority communities joining the Bamar majority, who generally live in central Burma, to form a federated nation. In the view of most of the EAOs, Burma's central government and the Tatmadaw have never lived up to the agreement's promises. These EAOs contend the Bamar majority has used the central government and the Tatmadaw to dominate and oppress Burma's ethnic minorities. To the Tatmadaw and Burma's past military juntas, the EAOs are insurgents threatening the nation's territorial integrity. In September 2015, the Tatmadaw set out its six principles for peace, which require the EAOs to agree to remain part of Burma, accept the 2008 constitution, submit to national sovereignty (the legitimacy of the current central government), and abide by the laws of the central government. NW'.,' ~ B U R MA Nmy P( Taw N~y Pyi Taw -'N * .O 'T gognpo goo g , q 'S a X 11LULANJILiN,

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