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October 20, 2017


Chad


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Chad, a landlocked country twice the size of Texas, has had
a turbulent history marked by conflict since independence
from France in 1960. The country lies in a politically
unstable region, bordered by Libya, Sudan, the Central
African Republic (CAR), Cameroon Niger, and Nigeria. Its
diverse population includes predominantly Muslim Arab
and other semi-nomadic ethnic groups in the arid north and
east, and mostly agrarian groups practicing Christianity and
traditional beliefs in the south. President Idriss D6by, who
seized power in an armed rebellion in 1990, was reelected
to a fifth term in April 2016. Chad is among the world's
poorest countries, despite significant oil reserves. Instability
and poor governance have hindered development.

A 2010 agreement between Chad and Sudan, which had for
years engaged in a proxy war by backing rebel groups in
each other's territory, has reduced conflict in Chad, but
former rebel groups periodically threaten to resume their
armed struggle against D6by. Without the support of Sudan
or the former Qadhafi regime in Libya, the rebels' capacity
to challenge the government may be limited.

Chad has been increasingly active in regional stabilization
efforts as internal threats have decreased, with support from
countries like France and the United States. Since 2013, its
military has played a key role in countering regional
terrorist groups in Mali and Nigeria. As a result, and in line
with broader trends, U.S. security assistance to Chad has
risen. The French and U.S. military presence there has
grown. Spillover from conflicts in Sudan and CAR (where
Chadian troops participated in a regional stabilization
mission in 2012-2014) pose challenges. Threats from Libya
and reported links between elements of the Islamic State
(IS) in Libya and IS-aligned Boko Haram in Nigeria are of
concern to the D6by government and its Western partners.

On September 24, 2017, the Trump Administration listed
Chad among eight counties whose citizens are indefinitely
barred from receiving certain types of visas to enter the
United States. A Presidential Proclamation states that while
Chad is an important and valuable counterterrorism
partner, it does not adequately share public-safety and
terrorism-related information and fails to meet at least one
other significant but undefined security standard.

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Chad has been politically unstable since 1965, when
northern, largely Muslim tribes rebelled against the
southern, Christian-dominated government. Years of
authoritarian rule and civil war followed. President D6by, a
former general, took power by force in a rebellion launched
from Sudan against then-President Hissdne Habrd. Ddby's
forces, reportedly aided by Libya and Sudan, seized the
capital in 1990 and forced Habr6 into exile. Previously,


Figure I. Chad


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Source: CIA World Factbook, IMF

D6by was Habr6's military chief of staff and special
security advisor during a period of violent state
counterinsurgency in 1984 known as Black September.
D6by denies responsibility for massacres committed during
that time, although in 2016, a special court in Senegal found
Habr6 guilty of crimes against humanity.

D6by has pledged to create a democratic multi-party
political system, but after more than 25 years in office his
governance record is generally seen as poor. He and his
party continue to dominate elections against a weak and
fractured opposition. Parliament amended the constitution
in 2005 to abolish presidential term limits. Ddby's ethnic
group, the Zaghawa, a non-Arab, predominantly Muslim
group, constitutes a small minority of the population but its
members hold many government positions.

In the 2016 elections, several opposition figures ran against
D6by, and African Union (AU) election observers reported
that the polls took place in a relatively more consensual
climate than the previous elections. However, the
government suppressed pre-election protests and blocked
internet access and text messaging on polling day. Several
activists were arrested for organizing rallies and some
members of the security forces allegedly disappeared,
purportedly after supporting the opposition. Freedom House
classifies Chad as not free in its Freedom in the World
index. D6by completed a one-year term as AU president in
2016, and then-foreign minister Moussa Faki Mahamat was
elected as AU Commission Chairperson in January 2017.


Chad's ethnic rivalries are complex and fluid, and they have
been compounded by conflict over land and limited natural
resources. Some opponents of President D6by, including
within his own ethnic group, have periodically fomented


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