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1 1 (January 27, 2020)

handle is hein.crs/govbcyx0001 and id is 1 raw text is: C ln Challenges to the United States in Space Preserving key U.S. national security and economic interests is widely seen to depend on assured access and widespread use of space-based systems. Satellites are as essential to military and intelligence operations as fighters, warships, and combat vehicles. Major portions of the global economy rely on space systems; they facilitate the entire global financial system, stock markets, communications, agriculture, and transportation, as well as other commercial and civil activities. A June 2015 Department of Homeland Security report estimated $1.6 trillion of annual U.S. business revenues depend on satellites. Space systems are also a permanent and seamless component in the nation's critical infrastructure, as vital as the electrical grid or the highway system. Space, however, is no longer the exclusive domain of great powers, nor does it remain a sanctuary for science and exploration, free from conflict. In fact, U.S. officials and others identify space as a warfighting domain. Adversaries are aware of U.S. space superiority and understand the critical reliance on space systems to achieve U.S. national interests. Many military and industry analysts believe it prudent to plan for a future in which space is increasingly competitive, congested, and contested. Nations with comprehensive space programs possess distinct military, economic, and scientific advantages, but complexity, expense, and barriers to entry into space have allowed only a few space-faring nations to develop substantial space capabilities. The rise of a robust global commercial space sector is rapidly altering the picture. Global revenue from space- based services annually exceeds $300 billion, with more than two-thirds in the commercial sector. Well over $100 billion in annual revenues arises from commercial space data services (mostly direct-to-home television). Over $100 billion derives from commercial space equipment manufacturing. Finally, governments spend about $80 billion per year on space programs, with the U.S. government spending roughly 60% of that $80 billion. Most space technologies have become dual-use, and commercial space revenues now dwarf investments by governments. This creates a dilemma. Governments regulate their space industries for strategic reasons, but more and more, nations also compete in the far-less regulated commercial space market. Eleven nations now have the space industrial capacity to develop, manufacture, launch, and operate their own space systems. More than 50 nations have purchased and operate satellites and have partial elements of a space industrial base. U.S., European, Russian, and Japanese firms still dominate, but India and China possess comprehensive and rapidly growing space - mmm, go mppm qq\ , q I aS 11LIANJILiN, Updated January 27, 2020 industries. China is especially aggressive in capturing space services market share in developing nations. Nations as diverse as South Korea and the United Arab Emirates are pursuing commercial space industries. Although the global space economy has grown steadily over the past decade, the market is finite. At the same time, analysts note that the competitiveness of a nation's commercial space industry has a relationship to its ability to field affordable national security space systems. Most observers believe that maintaining a healthy U.S. space industry over the long term could require a better balance between viewing the space industry as a strategic military asset and allowing its firms to compete in the expanding global commercial space market. A key focus area is the U.S. national security space launch (NSSL) market. Since 2006, a joint Boeing-Lockheed Martin venture, United Launch Alliance (ULA) under an Air Force contract, provided NSS missions with a number of certified launchers, the Atlas and Delta rockets. Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) entered the market in 2015, gaining certification to compete for NSS launches with its Falcon-9 launcher while lowering launch costs. SpaceX developed a more capable launch vehicle in the Falcon Heavy, which DOD certified in June 2018 and later awarded NSS missions under Phase IA of the NSSL program. ULA, Northrop Grumman, SpaceX, and Blue Origin have all submitted bids for phase two of the NSSL program, with each company proposing their rocket designs: Vulcan, OmegA, Falcon, and New Glenn, respectively. Many observers believe that market dynamics have the potential to reduce prices, but they also require monitoring to ensure uninterrupted strategic access to certified U.S. launchers. The existing Atlas and Delta inventory and the Falcon-9 and Falcon Heavy are expected to provide sufficient certified launchers to meet national security requirements for the next few years as markets settle. However, developing new rockets remains challenging, and timelines and certifications may not go as planned. This is especially true in light of broader global market pressures facing U.S. launch companies. Worldwide, the number of launch contracts available for competition averages just 20-25 per year. Arianespace in Europe has historically dominated this market, followed by Russia. China and India are taking market share as well. Launch supply may soon outpace global demand. The U.S. launch sector likely faces small margins for error in crafting future development and production plans. K~:>

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