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          ~ Research Service






Attacks Against Saudi Oil Rattle Markets



Updated September 18, 2019


September  14, 2019, saw a successful attack against major oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia (the largest
oil exporter), which disrupted 5.7 million barrels of daily production (mb/d), over half of Saudi oil
production and about 5% of global supply. For context, U.S. crude oil production is approximately 12
mb/d. Global oil markets have responded with an initial price increase and subsequent pullback. The
magnitude and duration of the price rise will depend on many factors, such as repair time, additional
supplies, the potential confirmation of the perpetrator, and any related security responses.


Implications for Saudi Arabia

The attacks on the Abqaiq processing facility and the Khurais oil field in eastern Saudi Arabia, claimed by
Yemen's  Houthi rebels, were the latest in a series of cross-border attacks on energy and transportation
sites in the kingdom apparently linked to the ongoing war in Yemen and the Saudi-U.S. confrontation
with Iran. The incidents have demonstrated the vulnerability of critical Saudi infrastructure to missile and
drone attacks and raised complicated strategic questions for Saudi and U.S. policymakers concerning
attribution and potential responses. Iran's government denies U.S. and Saudi charges of responsibility and
has pledged to retaliate for any future attacks on Iran. Saudi Arabia's military operations in Yemen have
created demands on Saudi security and defense capabilities in addition to fiscal pressures that have been
amplified by oil prices, which have remained below the kingdom's budget targets.
Saudi leaders deny reports that they may delay a planned initial public offering of shares in their state-
owned  oil company, Aramco, which operates facilities and infrastructure targeted in recent months.
However,  additional attacks, or delays in restoration efforts, could extend negative short-term effects and
reduce investor confidence in the security of Aramco assets. Over time, relative export volumes, market
prices, and security and reconstruction costs will determine the attacks' fiscal effects on the kingdom.

                                     The Abqaiq   Oil Facility
 The Abqaiq facility is the largest oil processing facility in the world, with a capacity of about 13 mb/d, but has been operating
 below its capacity. Abqaiq is a key processing facility for light and extra light Saudi oil that tend to be high in sulfur. To
 stabilize the crude, hydrogen sulfide and other contaminants need to be removed. An attempted terrorist attack on the
 facility in 2006 prompted joint Saudi-U.S. efforts to improve critical infrastructure security in the kingdom.


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