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                                                                                             Updated July 5, 2019

Guatemala: Corruption, Uncertainty Mar August 2019

Elections


Guatemala held national elections for president, the entire
158-seat congress, 340 mayors, and other local posts on
June 16, 2019. The list of candidates on the ballot was
finalized one week before voting. Candidates were still
being ruled ineligible-some due to corruption
allegations-and appealing rulings in early June. Elements
of the government allowed some candidates to run and
impeded the registrations of others. Such uncertainty likely
will lead many to question the outcome.

Since none of the 19 presidential candidates won the first
round with more than 50% of the vote, the top two
candidates will compete in a second round on August 11.
The winner is due to be inaugurated in January 2020. Some
7.6 million Guatemalans have registered to vote in this
year's elections.

Corruption is once again a primary concern for voters. In
response to public outcry over past illegal campaign
financing and other electoral crimes, Guatemala adopted
electoral law reforms in 2016. Eleven of Guatemala's 27
parties face charges of illicit or unreported campaign
financing, and several candidates face judicial proceedings.
Twenty-four parties registered presidential candidates.
Registered candidates have immunity from prosecution.

President Jimmy Morales will not be running for reelection,
since the Guatemalan constitution limits presidents to one
term. But Morales himself is being investigated for
corruption and has taken actions that appear to have
advantaged political parties and criminal organizations
linked in corruption. The president fired some reformist
officials, for example, and chose not to renew the
International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala
(CICIG), which helps Guatemalan institutions enforce
campaign finance laws. Weakening reform and
enforcement efforts could further enable drug cartels and
other criminal organizations to continue financing
politicians.

Results   of  First  Round
The controversial disqualification of several candidates
contributed to low voter turnout. On July 1, a recount
confirmed that Sandra Torres of the center-left National
Unity of Hope (UNE) party won 26%  of the popular vote
and Alejandro Giammattei of the right-wing Vamos party
won just over 14%; they are to go to the second round.
Torres lost in the second round in 2015, and a recent poll
showed  30% of voters said they would never vote for her.

Torres, a longtime politician and former first lady, has been
implicated in illegal campaign financing in the 2015
elections. Giammattei was the director of the penitentiary
                                          https://crsrepc


system (2006-2008) during the Oscar Berger
administration. Over the past 20 years, he has run for
president four times with four different parties. In 2010, the
CICIG  and the attorney general's office charged him with
participating in extrajudicial killings. He was acquitted in
2012 after the courts determined that the case against him
lacked sufficient evidence.

UNE  won  the largest share of congressional seats, but with
44 out of 160 seats, it will still lack a majority. Fifteen
parties split the other seats, indicating political gridlock is
likely to continue and reform likely will be limited.

Guatemala 2019 Presidentil Candidates:
Determining Who Was Elgble
Guatemala's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) is an
important part of Guatemala's democracy, as it organizes
all electoral contests and enforces the country's electoral
rules. Although it is an independent government institution,
the TSE has been subject to political pressure and threats
this year from multiple sources. According to various
reports, political and business leaders have bribed and
intimidated members of the TSE and other government
offices and tribunals to influence the results of the elections.
The TSE  eliminated two of the three most popular
candidates, Thelma Aldana and Zury Rios, from the race.


       Guatemala 2019 Electoral Calendar
 JANUARY 18:   Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) announces
 general elections
 JANUARY 19:   Start of candidate registration through the
 TSE's Citizen Registry
 FEBRUARY 19: Last   day for Guatemalans to register to
 vote
 MARCH 17:   Last day to register candidates
 MARCH 18:   Official start date for campaign
 JUNE   14: End of campaign
 JUNE   16: General elections
 AUGUST I1: Runoff   elections
      Source: Supreme Electoral Tribunal.

Aldana, a former attorney general, is internationally
renowned  for pursuing corruption cases against wealthy and
powerful business and political figures, including former
presidents Otto P6rez Molina and Alvaro Colom. By many
accounts, those opposed to her anti-corruption platform
applied pressure to prevent her candidacy with the center-
left Semilla Movement.


orts.congress.go

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