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430 Annals Am. Acad. Pol. & Soc. Sci. [i] (1977)

handle is hein.cow/anamacp0430 and id is 1 raw text is: PREFACE

The first nuclear explosion, in July 1945, prompted Dr. Robert Oppen-
heimer to recall the lines from the Bhagavad Gita, I am become Death, the
shatterer of worlds!1 Since that date, the face of Death has been seen on
many more occasions, both in the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and in
the hundreds of tests of nuclear weapons conducted by the United States
and other countries. So far, however, the world has not been shattered; in
fact, nuclear weapons have not been used in any of the conflicts of the
past 30 years.
This fortunate outcome has been due in part to luck, in part to the fact that
the five nuclear-armed powers (the United States, USSR, Britain, France,
and China) have learned how to adapt their behavior to the requirements
of the atomic age. But this age is one of rapid change, not least in the
area of nuclear technology. Recent developments make it easier for states
to produce nuclear weapons, and the incentives to do so remain high. Thus
we may have, in the not-too-distant future, a world of 10, 20, or 30 nuclear
powers, with a consequent increase in the complexity of interstate relations
and in the likelihood that these may lead to nuclear war.
This issue of the ANNALS addresses itself to three aspects of nuclear
proliferation: the prospect that new nuclear powers will come on the scene,
the problems that their arrival may create, and ways of coping with those
problems. To put the matter in these words implies that proliferation is
undesirable-as I, for one, believe. This belief neither justifies the
existence of five nuclear powers nor precludes acceptance of a sixth-or a
seventh; rather, it reflects a concern about the potential consequences for
peace and security of the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Whether this
concern is well-founded, you may judge for yourself as you read further.
However, before you turn to substantive matters, I should like to thank
the Center for Arms Control and International Security Studies of the
University of Pittsburgh for its support of this endeavor, and most notably
for its sponsorship of a workshop wherein authors (and critics) could discuss
nuclear proliferation. In this way, good inputs were made even better.
JOSEPH I. COFFEY

1. Sri Krishna, The Bhagavad Gita.

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