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333 Annals Am. Acad. Pol. & Soc. Sci. 1 (1961)

handle is hein.cow/anamacp0333 and id is 1 raw text is: The Impact of Labor Force Changes on Labor Relations By MARTEN S. ESTEY ABSTRACT: Prospective changes in the industrial, age, and sex distribution of the labor force will affect labor relations in the decade 1960-1970. A 20 per cent increase in the total labor force has been forecast, an increase greater than in any previous decade of American history. Changes in internal composition, however, will be more significant than changes in size. Employ- ment in the service industries can be expected to increase its margin over employment in the production industries until, by 1970, employment in the service industries will approximate 57 per cent of total employment. The shift to the service indus- tries is one factor which will tend to reduce the proportion of union members in the labor force. A collateral effect might be an increased importance for local market factors in collective bargaining and a resultant increase in the decentralization of collective bargaining with decreased economic impact for any specific settlement. As employment opportunities decline in steel and automobiles, the featherbedding problems of the rail- road and other industries can be expected to extend there. The growth of three key employment groups will create spe- cial problems in labor relations. These groups are persons under twenty-five years of age, women, and professional and clerical workers. Women and the young workers bear a dis- proportionate share of unemployment during times of general unemployment. Women and professional and clerical work- ers are the groups traditionally most difficult to unionize. Fi- nally, the increase in available professional and clerical work- ers may make the concerns of high-talent manpower the neces- sary focus for personnel management in the years to come.- Ed. Marten S. Estey, Ph.D., Swarthmore, Pennsylvania, is Associate Professor of Industry in the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. He received his Bachelor of Sci- ence degree from Purdue University and his Doctor of Philosophy degree from Princeton University. He has served on the faculties of Cornell and Michigan State universities. He has been an economist for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the National War Labor Board, the American Federation of Labor, and the United States Department of State. His articles have appeared in specialized journals. 1

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