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1 The Effects of the Partial Shutdown Ending in January 2019 1 (2019)

handle is hein.congrec/cboepshe0001 and id is 1 raw text is: JANUARY 2019 The Effects of the Partial Shutdown Ending in January 2019 Summary The Congressional Budget Office has estimated the effects of the five-week partial shutdown of the government that started on December 22, 2018, and ended on January 25, 2019. This report presents CBO's findings, which include the following: * CBO estimates that the five-week shutdown delayed approximately $18 billion in federal discretionary spending for compensation and purchases of goods and services and suspended some federal services. * As a result of reduced economic activity, CBO estimates, real (that is, inflation- adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2018 was reduced by $3 billion (in 2019 dollars) in relation to what it would have been otherwise. (Such references are in calendar years or quarters unless this report specifies otherwise.) In the first quarter of 2019, the level of real GDP is estimated to be $8 billion lower than it would have been-an effect reflecting both the five-week partial shutdown and the resumption in economic activity once funding resumed. * As a share of quarterly real GDP, the level of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2018 was reduced by 0.1 percent, CBO estimates. And the level of real GDP in the first quarter of 2019 is expected to be reduced by 0.2 percent.1 (The effect on the annualized quarterly growth rate in those quarters will be larger.)2 * In subsequent quarters, GDP will be temporarily higher than it would have been in the absence of a shutdown. Although most of the real GDP lost during the fourth quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019 will eventually be recovered, CBO estimates that about $3 billion will not be. That amount equals 0.02 percent of projected annual GDP in 2019. In other words, the level of GDP 1 The economic forecast that CBO released in The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029 was completed before the partial shutdown of the federal government began. Therefore, that forecast does not incorporate any of the shutdown's economic effects. See Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029 (January 2019), www.cbo.gov/publication/54918. 2 To annualize an amount is to adjust it so that it applies to an entire year.

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