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Recent Trends in Medicare Costs 1 (March 1988)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo9124 and id is 1 raw text is: CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE U.S. CONGRESS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20515 KEORANDUK March 4, 1988 TO: FROM: Sandra Christense Lisa Simonso$7* SUBJECT: Recent Trends in Medicare Costs As you requested, this memorandum provides information about trends in Medicare costs by major category of service, for fiscal years 1980 through 1989. The tables show total disbursements, and do not show offsetting receipts (payroll taxes, premiums, and interest). The totals for Hospital Insurance (HI) and for Supplementary Medical Insurance (SKI) are actual spending amounts through 1987; the data for 1988 and 1989 are CBO projections, incorporating all legislation through December 31, 1987. For all years, the distribution of spending by category are estimates. Through 1986, we have used estimates made by the Health Care Financing Administration; for 1987-1989, the estimates are CBO's. There are two sections below. Section 1 presents historical and projected data on Medicare spending under current law. Spending is shown both in current dollars and in constant 1980 dollars. Section 2 gives a rough indication of how changes in disbursements under the seven omnibus reconciliation bills since 1981 were distributed by service category, using saving (or cost) estimates made at the time of passage. In brief, the data show that the rate of growth in spending for Medicare has declined over the decade, an effect that is more readily apparent after eliminating the effects of general inflation (see Figure 1). On a per enrollee basis, annual growth in real costs from 1985 through 1989 will be an estimated 3.0 percent, compared to an annual growth rate of 7.2 percent from 1980 through 1985. The falling rate of growth in spending for Medicare is primarily due to lower growth in inpatient costs and in spending for physicians' services. These changes were coincident with:

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