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Monthly Budget Review: Fiscal Year 2003 [i] (January-December 2003)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo8660 and id is 1 raw text is: I Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for November and the Daily Treasury Statements for December MONTHLY BUDGET REVIEW Fiscal Year 2003 A Congressional Budget Office Analysis January 10, 2003 The federal budget deficit was about $109 billion during the first quarter of fiscal year 2003, CBO estimates, significantly more than the $35 billion shortfall recorded over the same period last year. Lower receipts, the extension of benefits for the unemployed, and other factors are likely to push the deficit for the fiscal year well above the $145 billion estimated by CBO in August. CBO will issue new budget projections for 2003 and the following 10 years at the end of this month. NOVEMBER RESULTS (In billions of dollars) Preliminary Estimate Actual Difference Receipts 120 120* Outlays 180 179 -1 Deficit -60 -59 1 SOURCES: Department of the Treasury; CBO. NOTE: *= between -$500 million and $500 million. The Treasury reported a deficit of $59 billion in Novem- ber, about $1 billion less than CBO's projection based on the Daily Treasury Statements. While revenues were the same as CBO anticipated, outlays were about $1 billion lower than expected. ESTIMATES FOR DECEMBER (In billions of dollars) Actual Preliminary Estimated FY2002 FY2003 Change Receipts 188 183 -5 Outlays 161 179 18 S~urplus 27 4 -22 SOURCES: Department of the Treasury; CBO. The government ran a surplus of $4 billion in December 2002, CBO estimates. In each of the three previous years, the December surplus averaged about $30 billion. Outlays climbed by an estimated $18 billion over last December's total, while receipts fell by about $5 billion. As a result, the surplus in December 2002 was $22 bil- lion below the December 2001 figure. The decline in receipts is attributable to several factors. Receipts from individual income taxes fell by $14 bil- lion, while receipts from corporate income taxes and social insurance taxes rose by about $4 billion each. Receipts from withholding taxes, the largest component of individual income and social insurance taxes, were down by $11 billion, even though December 2002 con- tained one more business day than December 2001. While a few billion dollars of that drop can be traced to lower income tax rates, some of the drop may also have been caused by smaller year-end bonuses or by other developments that held down wages and salaries. Outlays were $18 billion greater this December than last December, CBO estimates. Higher spending for de- fense, Medicare, Social Security, and unemployment benefits accounted for much of that increase. BUDGET TOTALS THROUGH DECEMBER (In billions of dollars) October-December Estimated FY2002 FY2003 Change Receipts 466 428 -38 Outlays 502 537 35 Deficit -35 -109 -73 SOURCES: Department of the Treasury; CBO. The government recorded a deficit of about $109 billion for the first quarter of fiscal year 2003, CBO estimates-more than three times the deficit recorded fur the same period last year. Receipts were $3 8 billion lower and outlays were about $35 billion higher than in the first three months of fiscal year 2002. NOTE: Unless otherwise indicated, the figures in this report include the Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding. I

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