About | HeinOnline Law Journal Library | HeinOnline Law Journal Library | HeinOnline
LOG IN
LOG IN

125-Year Picture of the Federal Government's Share of the Economy, 1950 to 2075 1 (July 2002)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo8620 and id is 1 raw text is: Aseries of issue summaries fo the Congressional Budget Office REVISED JULY 3, 2002 A 125-Year Picture of the Federal Government's Share of the Economy, 1950 to 2075 Introduction Presenting a 125-year picture of the financial affairs of the federal government, this policy brief shows the size of the federal budget in relation to the general economy from the middle of the last century through the projected retire- ment years of the children of the post-World War 11 baby boomers. Of course, the future path of the budget is highly uncertain and subject to wide variation. Except for the first 10 years, which is the period covered by the Con- gressional Budget Office's (CBO's) projection of a base- line, the path shown here is simply a representation based on an illustrative set of key assumptions. Using CBO's new long-range projection model, the report merges the actual revenue and spending trends from 1950 through 2001 with projections for 2002 through 2075. For that purpose, the federal budget totals include the operations of the Social Security trust funds, which by law are considered to be off-budget Treasury accounts. The report expresses the budget figures as a share of gross do- mestic product (GDP) so that the magnitude of federal receipts and expenditures can be observed in relation to the total economic activity of the nation in any given year and over time.'1 Assumptions The figures and tables of this report illustrate a potential path for the budget that highlights projections of spending under current policies for the largest federal entitlement programs-Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid- and projections of net interest. Social Security spending reflects growth in both the number of recipients and wages, upon which benefits are calculated. Medicare and Medicaid spending also reflects the increasing number of recipients as well as higher costs for medical care. For these projections, the rise in health care costs per recipient is assumed to slow to a growth rate of 1 percentage point faster than per capita GDP. W~Xhile seemingly large, that rate is less than it has been in recent decades. It is spending for the major entitlement programs and interest, because of the commitments involved and their sheer miagnitude, that has tihe largest potenltial to conistraini future Congresses. Moreover, much of the government's remaining spending consists of discretionary outlays, the levels for which the Congress will determine annually. 1. The nature of future taxes and spending as well as the aggregate dif- ference between them can affect the growth of the economy. For this analysis, however, no macroeconomic effects that might result from the fiscal policies reflected by the projections are considered.

What Is HeinOnline?

HeinOnline is a subscription-based resource containing thousands of academic and legal journals from inception; complete coverage of government documents such as U.S. Statutes at Large, U.S. Code, Federal Register, Code of Federal Regulations, U.S. Reports, and much more. Documents are image-based, fully searchable PDFs with the authority of print combined with the accessibility of a user-friendly and powerful database. For more information, request a quote or trial for your organization below.



Short-term subscription options include 24 hours, 48 hours, or 1 week to HeinOnline.

Purchase Access

Contact us for annual subscription options:

Contact Us

Already a HeinOnline Subscriber?

Log In

profiles profiles most