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Monthly Budget Review for July 2016 1 (August 5, 2016)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo3076 and id is 1 raw text is: August 5, 2016 Monthly Budget Review for July 2016 The federal budget deficit was $514 billion for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2016, the Congressional Budget Office estimates-$49 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period last year. Both revenues and outlays were higher than they were last year, but outlays rose much more. If not for shifts in the timing of certain payments (which otherwise would have fallen on a weekend), the deficit for the 10-month period would be $92 billion larger than last year's amount. The government's revenues and spending so far this fiscal year lead CBO to expect that the annual deficit will total $590 billion-rather than the $534 billion that the agency projected in March, when it released its most recent set of budget projections. In large part, that increase stems from lower-than-expected revenues. Later this August, CBO will publish detailed estimates for this year and new multiyear budget projections. Budget Totals, October-July (Billions of dollars) Actual. FY 2015 Preliminary, FY 2016 Estimated Change Receipts 2,672 2.679 7 Outlays 3,138 3,193 55 Deficit -466 -514 -49 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of the Treasury. Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for June 2016 and the Daily Treasury Statements for July 2016. FY = fiscal year. Total Receipts: Slight Increase in the First 10 Months of Fiscal Year 2016 Receipts for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2016 totaled $2,679 billion, CBO estimates-just $7 billion more than they did during the same period last year. Some receipts were higher than they were last year, and others were lower: * Payroll (social insurance) taxes increased by $38 billion and individual income taxes declined by $4 billion, yielding a net increase of $34 billion (or 2 percent). o Amounts withheld from workers' paychecks increased by $60 billion (or 3 percent), probably because of growth in wages and salaries. The growth of withheld payroll taxes (6 percent) exceeded the growth of withheld individual income taxes (1 percent). However, that difference may not reflect the actual difference between the growth of payments for income taxes and the growth of payments for payroll taxes-because the Treasury Department does not observe that difference when collecting taxes, instead initially allocating withheld taxes to one source or the other on the basis of estimates. As additional information becomes available, including detailed tax return information, periodic reallocations are made to improve past allocations. o Overall, nonwithheld receipts declined by $7 billion (or 1 percent). That was the case even though those receipts were $12 billion higher during the first half of the fiscal year than they were during the first half of the previous year. Over the more recent period from April through July, nonwithheld receipts were $19 billion (or 5 percent) lower this year-mostly because final payments for 2015 made during the tax-filing season this year were less than Note: The amounts shown in this report include the surplus or deficit in the Social Security trust funds and the net cash flow of the Postal Service, which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding.

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