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Monthly Budget Review: Summary for Fiscal Year 2015 1 (November 6, 2015)

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                                                                                NOVEMBER 6, 2015




                        Monthly Budget Review:

                   Summary for Fiscal Year 2015

In fiscal year 2015, which ended on September 30, the federal budget deficit totaled $439 billion-
$44 billion less than the shortfall in 2014. Fiscal year 2015 was the sixth consecutive year in which the
deficit declined as a share of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP). The deficit peaked at 9.8 percent
of GDP in 2009; it fell to 2.8 percent in 2014 and to 2.5 percent in 2015.


                                      Fiscal Year Totals
                                      (Billions of dollars)
                             2010        2011       2012        2013        2014       2015

Receipts                     2,163      2,303       2,450      2,775       3,020       3,249
Outlays                      3,457      3,603       3,537       3,455      3,504       3,688
Deficit
   Amount                   -1,294      -1,300     -1,087        -680       -483        -439
   Percentage  of GDP         -8.7        -8.5        -6.8       -4.1        -2.8       -2.5
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Office of Management and Budget;
         Department of the Treasury.

In 2015, the government's revenues were $3.2 trillion, $228 billion (or almost 8 percent) more than receipts
in 2014. As a percentage of GDP, revenues rose from 17.6 percent in 2014 to 18.2 percent in 2015, the
highest level since 2001 and greater than the average over the past 50 years (17.4 percent) for the second
year in a row.

Net spending by the government was $3.7 trillion in 2015-$184 billion (or about 5 percent) more than
outlays in 2014, and the highest that it has been, in nominal terms, since 2011. Outlays amounted to
20.7 percent of GDP in 2015, compared with 20.4 percent in 2014. The percentage in 2015 was well below
the recent peak of 24.4 percent in 2009 but above the 50-year average of 20.2 percent.

Revenues
Relative to GDP, receipts from all major sources increased from the levels recorded for 2014:

        Individual income taxes, the largest revenue source, rose by $146 billion (or 10 percent),
        from 8.1 percent of GDP in 2014 to 8.7 percent of GDP in 2015. That percentage of GDP is
        the highest in any year since 2001.

        o  Income taxes withheld from workers' paychecks rose by $70 billion (or 6 percent),
           largely the result of higher wages and salaries.

       o   Nonwithheld payments of income taxes rose by $78 billion (or 16 percent), reflecting
           larger final and estimated tax payments made during fiscal year 2015. Most of those
           additional payments were for the 2014 tax year, and they probably reflect higher
           nonwage  income, including realizations of capital gains. The increase in nonwithheld
           receipts was slightly offset by income tax refunds, which were up by $3 billion (or
           1 percent) in 2015.

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