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Monthly Budget Review for August 2015 1 (September 8, 2015)

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                                                                                    SEPTEMBER 8, 2015






           Monthly Budget Review for August 2015


The federal government's budget deficit amounted to $528 billion for the first 11 months of fiscal year
2015, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That deficit was $61 billion smaller than the one
recorded during the same period last year. Revenues and outlays were both higher than last year's amounts,
by 8 percent and 5 percent, respectively. Adjusted for shifts in the timing of certain payments (which
otherwise would have fallen on a weekend), the deficit for the 11-month period decreased by $42 billion.

In its most recent budget projections, CBO estimated that the deficit for fiscal year 2015 (which will end on
September 30, 2015) would total $426 billion, about $59 billion less than the shortfall in fiscal year 2014.
(See An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015 to 2025, published in August.)

                                   Budget Totals, October-August
                                          (Billions of dollars)

                          Actual, FY 2014       Preliminary FY 2015      Estimated Change

         Receipts              2,669                  2,884                   215
         Outlays               3,258                  3,412                   153

         Deficit (-)            -589                   -528                    61
         Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of the Treasury. Based on the Monthly Treasury
         Statement for July 2015 and the Daily Treasury Statements for August 2015.
         Note: FY = fiscal year.



Total Receipts:  Up  by 8 Percent  in the First 11 Months  of Fiscal Year  2015

Receipts through August of this fiscal year totaled $2,884 billion, CBO estimates-$215 billion (or
8 percent) more than they did during same period last year. The largest increases in receipts were in the
following categories:

    m   Individual income  taxes and payroll (social insurance) taxes together rose by
        $182 billion (or 8 percent).

        o    Increases in amounts withheld from workers' paychecks-$116 billion (or
             6 percent)-accounted  for the bulk of that gain. Growth in wages and salaries
             probably explains the increase in withheld receipts.

         o   Nonwithheld  receipts rose by $72 billion (or 16 percent), reflecting payments made
             for both the 2014 and 2015 tax years. Most of those payments were for individual
             income  taxes and probably reflect growth in nonwage income.

         o   Income  tax refunds rose by $2 billion (or 1 percent), slightly offsetting those
             increases.

         o   Receipts from unemployment  insurance taxes, which are one kind of payroll tax, were
             down  by $4 billion (or 7 percent), also slightly offsetting those increases.

Note: The amounts shown in this report include the surplus or deficit in the Social Security trust funds and the net cash
flow of the Postal Service, which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding.

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